But the innovative businesses that develop genuinely new technologies also hire "the guys that has to refresh every few years". Leaving aside the potential financial gains if you're in early enough and they have a big exit, those also tend to be interesting places to work.

Moving into management is essentially changing career, and for the kind of person who actually enjoys programming and wants to do something creative and technical, there's no reason to assume they would either enjoy the new role or be any good at it.

That sounds like a career change that I wouldn't enjoy, despite being able to also avoid some of my least-favorite aspects of staying on the dev side of things.