Correct hyperscalars are doing fine - as it stands.
The problem is OAI/Anthropic - but if OAI and Anthropic fail the whole thing comes apart. Goog, Meta etc will be fine as they had tremendous cash flow generating operations prior to datacenter offerings w.r.t LLMs.
If OpenAI and Anthropic somehow become insolvent to the point that they are unable to continue running inference on their existing trained models, their tens of billions of dollars of monthly revenue will need to go somewhere.
And if default risk rises, yes the value of those bonds will get crushed. But Id argue the value of equity will be more so - since they are not A) positive EBIT B) EBITDA
Those two numbers are variables that compose measures of default risk.
Yes, and there must be a reason they went with Kroll instead of someone else. It is possibly a bad reason, and we should by default be skeptical and assume such with the little information we have, until proven otherwise.
This is not panic selling. This is someone who has done their own analysis and determined the situation does not look sustainable and it's time to get out.
You can't really rip off bond-holders when you are not positive EBIT and EBITDA...