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> there is a smaller % that benefits and learns more and faster

That's not what the study says nor it is capable of credibly making that claim. You are reasoning about individuals in an RCT where subjects did not serve as their own control. The high performers in the treatment group may have done even better had they been in the control and AI is in fact is slowing them down.

You don't know which is true because you can't know because of the study design. This is why we have statistics.


So you don't doubt their conclusion that most sucked by using AI, but you doubt that they found that some learned more?

The conclusion of the paper doesn't say that "most sucked using AI". It's says the mean quiz score was both significantly and sizably lower in the intervention group vs the control. No significant difference detected on speed.

The qualitative breakdown says how you use AI matters for understanding. It doesn't say some learned more than the control group and even if it did, it's not powered to show a statistical difference which is one of the only things keeping a study from not being another anecdote on the internet.

For the sake of argument let's say there is an individual in the treatment arm who scored higher than the highest control participant. What some want that to mean is, "Some engineers perform better using AI". It does not say that. That could be an objective fact(!), it doesn't matter. This study will not support it; it's an RCT. What if that programmer is just naturally gifted or lucky(!). This is the point of statistics.

The best you can do with outliers is say "AI usage didn't hinder some from attaining a high score" (again maybe it would have been higher w/o you just can't reason about individuals in a study like this).

I hope this helps.


Thank you for this.

But despite your best efforts to teach epolanski, they’ll never learn. Their comment history shows that they’re one of the MANY confidently incorrect tools on HN.


> I wish they had attempted to measure product management skill.

We're definitely getting better at writing specs. The issue is the labor bottleneck is competent senior engineers, not juniors, not PMs, not box-and-arrow staff engineers.

> I think AI is shifting entry level programmers to focus on expressing requirements clearly

This is what the TDD advocates were saying years ago.


The phones were prior with "play protect" certification. It's all being captured. Since we can't seem to have more virtuous companies, we need more regulation.

I'm not sure how defensible the lead was. The only reason BYD isn't the only game in town is tariffs. The pivot to Optimus is ridiculous though. They can't get a car to drive truly autonomously after more than a decade and they want to expand the degrees of freedom?

Tesla had a good brand image in the early 2010, they could have positioned themselves like the quality/luxury brand for EV and have people buy Tesla for the brand itself like people do for Apple.

Instead they let Elon made their brand so toxic people are actively avoiding it.


I'm skeptical. If someone really wants a Tesla, my guess is that they'll rationalize Musk's actions or least compartmentalize them.

That was 10-15 years ago, but back then Musk appeared different, and Telsa was new. Today you can buy a Tesla, they are no longer the status symbol they once were. A 15 year old Mercedes is a status symbol in the US, a 15 year old Tesla is not, Tesla didn't capture the status symbol market (which might have been a good decision - what wasn't a good decision was for the CEO to go public about political views that are lot of his potential base to not support)

A 15 year old Mercedes is a falling apart PoS maintenance nightmare driven by someone with a lack of common sense.

They still look like luxury, though. Here's a 2011 entry-level Mercedes https://www.edmunds.com/assets/m/for-sale/38-wddgf8bb5br1533...

No, it's the reverse. Someone who finds Musk's behavior so abhorrent they fear being affiliated with it will actually find reasons they don't really want a Tesla.

It doesn't help that Tesla, making extremely low quality and uncomfortable cars for the price point, provides plenty of dislikable things to find.


I think Facebook is even more universally thought of as a bad company, and everyone still engages there, too.

Facebook as a monopoly of a sort and so is hard to get away from. If I don't like Tesla there are many other options. Even if you only buy EVs, there are a lot of options that you can buy today. The only people who have to buy Tesla are the type who are buying 10 year old EVs (the limited range on 10 year old Nissan rules them out).

Well, lots of people don't use Facebook. But you're right that there aren't any real like for like replacements.

Of course, Twitter was a quasi-monopoly as well. That said, Bluesky emerged but only as an alternative with much less critical mass.


Difference is their product is so good as to be basically irreplaceable (good = strong network effects, which is the only flavor of "good" that matters)

There are network effects to social networks that do not apply to choice of vehicle

Some people. Others are actively embracing it.

Most people don't know about the political aspect.


I'm glad Tesla is pivoting to a product that can drop your bag of groceries in the worst case, instead of one that can slam you into a concrete divider at 75mph.

In general, any robot that has servos powerful enough to be any of use is surprisingly dangerous to be around. While it's much easier to apply various limiters, the raw power in those engines will always pose a significant level of risk if anything goes wrong. If you're hovering above a human who sits up suddenly, you might get your nose broken. If it's a robot instead, it will have the strength and mass to easily mutilate you in the same kind of accident.

I used to be an adventurer like you, then I took a roundhouse kick to the head. Never let your humanoid robot watch TV!

The robot could leave the ironer standing on your clothes and walk away; it could leave your empty pan on the stove at max heating; it could take a nice hard grip of your throat for a few minutes.

Maybe someone with first-hand experience can weight in, but isn't this what alternative education platforms like "Brilliant" look like?


What a great comparison; I've never thought of it this way. It's obviously not perfect since the automation is so temperamental shall we say, but this does give me more empathy for the countless workers whose jobs have been re-natured by technology.


From their prospective, the efficiency increases and more gets done, but the hours and wage stay the same and the number of co-workers may decrease.


It's the standard for mobile. That said, in server-side enterprise computing, I know no one who uses it. I'm sure there are applications, but in this domain you'd need a good justification for not following standard patterns.

I have used DuckDB on an application server because it computes aggregations lightning fast which saved this app from needing caching, background services and all the invalidation and failure modes that come with those two.


I think it's the serial waiting game and inevitable context switching while you wait.

Long iteration cycles are taxing


https://thenewstack.io/how-deepminds-alphatensor-ai-devised-...

Not either of the species of algorithms you've described, but still an advance.


That's about as far removed from vibe coding as you can get. It's the result of an algorithm developed for a specific purpose by researchers at one of the most advanced machine learning companies.


Who really cares? The goalpost of "AI is useless because I can't vibe code novel discoveries" is a strawman. AI and vibe coding are transformational. So are AI-enhanced efforts to solve longstanding, difficult scientific problems. If cancer is cured with AI assistance, does it really matter if it was vibe-cured or state-of-the-art-lab-cured?


Ironic to call it a strawman whilst making a strawman yourself. I never said AI was useless, I said vibe coding hasn't produced anything novel.


Also in the minority. I use pretty atypical language and grammar for effect frequently, which is a nightmare to edit on iOS. I'm probably a little slower typing now for run of the mill message, but like you said dictation is actually great for that.

I'm overall happy with the decision and would recommend others try it.


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