PE is forward looking. Apple has the business model where people will continue to buy their newer phones and devices and use their paid services at the same or higher prices for the foreseeable future.
Do you think GPUs will continue to be bought at the same rate as during the ai data center buildout gold rush era, at the same ultra high up prices?
For CPUs, Moore's law lasted more than 50 years. We don't know how long it will last for GPUs. I think Nvidia will keep improving performance, lowering power consumption and reducing heat generation for many years to come.
No idea what you are missing and yes, Opus is quite solid, but Fable is clearly way better for me.
I just did a direct comparison, big change in a quite complex codebase. Same prompt for Opus, same for Fable. Fable clearly won and delivered very good results, while Opus delivered mediocre, so I did not let it finish. I expected both to fail and was prepared to do lots of manual steering, but not necessary with Fable one shotting it, and all this with 35$ of credits for fable. I am still impressed. If I would have had to hire a human, it would have cost me thousands of dollar for the same task - and a way longer time. So maybe the valuations are overblown, but they clearly provide value for me.
"Opus delivered mediocre, so I did not let it finish"
Mediocre means average / middle of the pack. It sounds like its doing exactly what you would expect nothing more. Why would you stop it? Why would you need exceptional?
Core meaning: Barely adequate, average, or just acceptable.
Mediocre means of only ordinary or moderate quality—neither very good nor very bad, and often slightly disappointing
The quality is average but expectations of high quality are not met. He expected more but got what he asked for. We overuse top models because of this.
The claim was there is no difference between Opus and Fable but to me there is.
Opus delivered mediocre results. Not garbage, but would have required me to do lot's of things myself. Fable did not needed my supervision with this task.
By ambitious if you mean we are not like all the linkedin influencers with their “i one shotted an app this morning…” then no, we are not. Nobody is. I have been in software engineering for 18 years and 6 different companies including FANG and 99% of the people, on 99% of the days arnt writing new apps from scratch. Thats simply not how anything works.
And what even are these ambitious companies and people one shotting and building with Fable? AI has been around for almost 3 years now. Tell me one app or software you use which has gotten significantly better and has amazing new useful features landing on a weekly basis? If anything, every single software product I use has gotten worse.
This is just "you're holding it wrong" with a little smooch of condescension. If only we plebeians could comprehend what magnificent works those who have ambitiously integrated agents into the workstream have wrought!
Sometimes you actually are holding it wrong. It's pretty reasonable to think that Fable isn't worth the massive increase in cost, but if you think it outright doesn't have any benefits over Opus 4.8 then your workflow is probably not making good use of the tools.
I couldn't imagine being so presumptuous as to know that my workflow fits all sizes, and all others are just holding it wrong – or worse, they're not doing real work. It would take a bigger ego on my part, or maybe less social awareness, to presume this.
> but if you think it outright doesn't have any benefits over Opus 4.8 then your workflow is probably not making good use of the tools.
I don't even use claude, I give exactly zero shits about fable or opus or bingus bongus.
To be perfectly clear: my comment has nothing to do with your workflow, but rather with the way you've condescendingly implied the person's work is trifling and inferior because they don't use tools the same way you do.
Japan and South Korea literally have 100s of American military bases on their territory. You really think they are sovereign nations who can pursue an independent nuclear program?
> You really think they are sovereign nations who can pursue an independent nuclear program?
Yes? Are you really sitting here telling South Korea, Japan, Germany, and more that they’re not sovereign nations because they choose to have American military bases on their home soil?
There is no large country left which is not an American client state to pursue nuclear weapons . India was in the 90s, and they pursued nukes, tested them and got sanctioned by the west.
How are you defining large? Geography? Population? Certainly you've got countries like Brazil or South Africa or Indonesia. I'm sure we could think of a few more.
Holy batman, are you me?? I too am 40 and so sick of this industry after the masks came off and AI greed forced all CEOs and execs to salivate like hungry hyenas.
Are you sure thats not because there is no concern of a deadlines, time to get things out faster than competition, politics, cross team opinions and competing business goals?
I've met devs who thrive under these conditions too and still produce works of art, but that was my point even so, that people who code out of passion without doing it for work can produce some works of art.
If AI replaced all jobs, then how are those companies turning a profit? I dont understand this. Humans need to spend money and buy products for all the companies to make money. Do we imagine a parallel economy of agents spending money and humans are out of this?
One thing AI is actually good at: look at a bunch of data, make informed, unbiased, objective and quick decision, have a backup plan if that fails.
This is exactly what an executive is supposed to do. But since executives are the ones in charge, nobody talks about this, it’s all about getting rid of developers and how engineers arnt needed :).
Oh, not in that sense. I meant if you showed it data and business metrics, and asked for s tough decision, it is likely not going to make a decision by factoring in the race of the manager whose team isnt doing great, or get influenced because another executive is its beer buddy, or because the finance guy used to work with the AI at a previous job.
I am talking about these biased a human manager or executive will most certainly have. We have all seen it.
Yup. And in my experience, AI has made the communication and decision making overhead significantly worse thanks to 100x longer docs, code that noone understands and enormous pressure by executives to magically produce software that just works.
That's just because most people are bad at communication to start with.
Look at all the shit github README before llm. Most repos didn't bother because it was effort. those few that did, were because of autistic focus. Of those, very few were "great" user documentation.
now llms are here, the effort barrier is gone, and now we're inundated with shit README that provide no value to users nor respect their time.
Once you start applying SKILL.md that revolve around fixing HOW to communicate value to users in a way that respects their time, you'll see this story change in noticeable places.
I doubt it will change everywhere because it also requires that you give a shit about doing this in the first place, so those people Ed Zitron talks about... business idiots won't care, because they're ultimately nihlist.
Do you think GPUs will continue to be bought at the same rate as during the ai data center buildout gold rush era, at the same ultra high up prices?
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