Fat Man is the “much more complicated” design and the guys picked it because it is more challenging.
Results of the analysis are still classified (declassified document is redacted to death) but there are some accounts claiming that Dr. Teller uncovered that the design was viable and would produce a blast within order of magnitude of the “inspiration”.
If the account above is true it means anything from low single digit kiloton range to low double digit.
But I do not think today anybody would doubt that. The biggest obstacle to fission bomb making are materials themselves. Lack of public data to calibrate would mean nothing to terrorists (1 kiloton is still terror-inducing) and nation states have no problems in accessing nuclear scientists.
Fortunately, getting enough material is what makes this lunacy impractical.
Results of the analysis are still classified (declassified document is redacted to death) but there are some accounts claiming that Dr. Teller uncovered that the design was viable and would produce a blast within order of magnitude of the “inspiration”.
If the account above is true it means anything from low single digit kiloton range to low double digit.
But I do not think today anybody would doubt that. The biggest obstacle to fission bomb making are materials themselves. Lack of public data to calibrate would mean nothing to terrorists (1 kiloton is still terror-inducing) and nation states have no problems in accessing nuclear scientists.
Fortunately, getting enough material is what makes this lunacy impractical.