I think another element the cost of maintaining it, supporting it, marketing, etc. hasn't been commoditized like producing brand new software. Those things take time to do properly and there are lots of people churning out a SaaS and then they get abandoned because its not fun anymore to do all the administrative/sales stuff.
I seriously don't think non-technical people are pumping out apps, probably never will. They simply don't have an interest and would rather just pay for a service. A HVAC, plumbing, or electrician company isn't going to write their own CRM system. Now they will price hunt those services so as software production becomes cheaper, I would expect SaaS margins to also be going down.
Selling tokens is a similar approach to social media "engagement" loops of keeping people in their app. It works but the detractor for frontier labs is no ad revenue.
I think you should read up on Xerox and PARC. A single company can only take on so many things at once and be successful. Also it was ~60 years ago so at that time they could only manage the IP of laser printers as it aligned with the copier business. They didn't productize GUI, Ethernet, and other inventions or concepts like tablet computing that came out of PARC.
Now there are conglomerates like Alphabet that have Waymo, YouTube, etc. very different businesses, thats a bit different. It might actually make business sense for the frontier labs to do something like a CRM system as a spun-off separate company. That might be in direct competition with their source of capital and probably would violate some agreement - if they have a non-compete type of setup with the likes of Oracle, Google, Microsoft.
People running old versions and not applying patches rigorously is also normal. Its been normal for decades, nobody likes doing maintenance so it gets forgotten or ignored.
For like 95% of web applications, they probably could be ported to nearly any other web application tech stack with the tools we have now. We've been using HTTP GET|POST|PUT|DELETE for almost 30 years with HTML, CSS and JS on the frontend (with interludes of Flash, Java, etc. in clients). I think this AI hype cycle is going to lead to the tech industry spinning their wheels for a few years rewriting a bunch of things "just because I can" much like the industry spawned countless Javascript frameworks for a while (surprised we haven't seen more yet).
Instead of discussions about "my language/framework is better than your language/framework, see my TrustMeBro benchmark" - why not figure out what's next? Could we be working on the next set of patterns that are a level higher than OO design patterns like MVC, AR, etc.?
It feels like another layer of "conceptual compression". I'm not sure who/when that phrase came around but in context of Rails is where I heard it and its things like ActiveRecord or really any ORM. You aren't writing the SQL directly, something else is and for the most part it works. Then it doesn't work or your database grows too much and you need to optimize table structures with indexes, etc.
My point is if you don't understand the fundamentals of the underlying code (SQL in the example above), you're more likely to have issues in the future. Or maybe not if that app doesn't reach a usage pattern or complexity where the nuances under the hood matter.
It really depends on what you're shipping. Meta ships social media apps where in the grand scheme of things if something is broken software wise it largely doesn't matter. What's the worst case? lost ad revenue? Users can't do things? If that were software for MRI machines or aerospace where software issues/bugs can result in lives lost then it matters much more in understanding what is going on at all levels of the software and potentially hardware.
If LLMs were brains, it would be someone with severe amnesia who you had to tell them what an arm and a leg were every time. Its stored vectors of words or partial words and computations of math that run to predict the next words/partials to use to form text output. It will nearly always find the real sets of words that are load bearing to put into its output (seriously how many times do real and load bearing appear in the models, can we remove some of that).
What's interesting is most of the progression we've seen this last year in AI agent clients are very basic computer science concepts: loops, threads, arrays (of JSON) and memory management (aka context) with varying combinations of those put together and people in computing are writing about it like its some huge break through. I would love to hear a game developers perspective on comparing AI clients (not the server side LLMs/vectors/maths) with games - they seem to have very similar computing problems.
I think its easier to state "bullshit jobs" but the reality is every single job has "bullshit tasks" and usually these are the easiest things to do. TPS reports and the like. BS Tasks are ripe for AI to do the drudgery but I don't think there are a lot of actual full time jobs where the entire job is BS. These can't exist en masse for very long in capitalist companies.
There's always Dunbar's number - the larger an organization gets beyond the capacity of people to socially know one another, the greater the "what do they even do?" types of attitudes form about other distant parts of an organization.
An interesting difference between the AI boom and the dot com boom is that back then companies would IPO to raise capital and might have been forced to IPO when they were beyond 500 investors incl employees. These days these companies have already raised capital via private equity and the laws changed which allow them to not count employees with equity and have much higher investor counts. An IPO by either of the frontier labs companies is really a cash-out and payback on the capital they have borrowed. My thinking is the stock price would go down, possibly significantly, after an IPO.
Oracle's credit rating is hovering just above junk bond level. I think the capital agreements are similar to an Adjustable Rate Mortgage and monthly so if there's another rate increase from the Fed and Oracle can't find anyone to buy their bonds and/or their free cash flow continues to be negative then maybe that is a pin-prick in the stock bubble? Its sort of like if you keep bouncing around from 0% credit card offer for 12 months to another and then you stop getting 0% offers, then its time to face the music (those usually have a 3% transaction fee, at least a long time ago they did).
I've been saying for a while now to stay the fuck away from tech IPOs for exactly this reason: it's no longer "we need to raise capital so we can get bigger", it's "we're tapped out on growth, and the last round of private investors needs to be paid back, plus employees need their equity to be worth something in order to stay". Private markets extract all the value and then dump the husk on the public.
Assuming the NASDAQ / S&P aren't gamed into listing these at offering price to game the system into putting ~10% of people's retirement into a junk stock on day 1.
"Buy the index" isn't a solution for human influence and corruption, there are people in control of what goes into the index too.
When a stock hits the public market, it gets incorporated into broad market index funds (subject to the rules of those funds). If an overvalues stock gets dumped onto the public market, then crashes after being bought by index funds, then holders of those index funds are harmed.
Are there examples of this and quantified losses? The only one I can think of is Nasdaq and SpaceX, but Nasdaq isn’t exactly an index lay people should be investing in, and it isn’t commonly owned anyway (maybe less than 1% own it). And I don’t think SpaceX has lost any Nasdaq 100 investors money yet.
You can get rich by stealing pennies, if you steal them from enough people. It is still wrong, even if no individual lost enough to care about going after you.
If enough people try profiting by stealling pennies, the cumulative losses are significant; and can threaten confidence in and the strenght of the market.
I mean that used to be true until companies began strong-arming the indexes to include them on day 1 instead of having a mandatory 1-year waiting period. Now you're taking the bag whether you like it or not.
Yeah, the modern landscape uses an IPO not as a fundraiser for growth or expansion.
It's a tool to payback original investors, and insiders using public excitement.
This can be seen very easily in the share of startups that the public gets any exposure to, during their growth phase. This has rapidly declined since those policies changed, and almost all growth is now only exposed to private lending markets. By the time a company IPOs now, it's the exit strategy, not the fuel of another growth multiple on the business.
It's been a funny pairing of DotCom boom investors got burned buying paper with no revenue, and now investors complain about companies staying private till there is profit (or cashflow).
You really need to build things to learn and progress. Woodworking for Mere Mortals youtube channel is a good place to start. Start with hand tools and build some very basic things, see what you like doing and progress from there. The caution with all online content is the constant promotions, etc. for recommendations of tools or brands. Look for counter opinions. See if you can go use a tool somewhere before buying, maybe at a local store like Rockler or Woodcraft - they may have classes. What you won't see in online content is how long something really takes, they are probably editing 40 hours of video down into 30 minutes.
In my experience, a track saw is immensely more useful than a simple circular saw or miter saw for finer woodworking or cabinet work. The other two are great for rough carpentry but tend to be harder to use for finer tolerances needed for finer woodworking. They are more expensive but because of the track you will get straight cuts with little setup. I've had issues with a contractor sized table saw even with it built into and secured in a DIY cabinet. Lifting and moving large sheets of plywood or assembled boards like a table top can be prone to more errors than setting up and moving a saw along a track. Really expensive table saws are probably better but as a hobbyist I don't have $3000 for a single tool.
I seriously don't think non-technical people are pumping out apps, probably never will. They simply don't have an interest and would rather just pay for a service. A HVAC, plumbing, or electrician company isn't going to write their own CRM system. Now they will price hunt those services so as software production becomes cheaper, I would expect SaaS margins to also be going down.
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