True, but these are wealthy and calculated individuals we’re talking about. Wealth insulates a person from fear and shame. Intelligence encourages calculation.
But it then bears the question that if the so called "network effect" companies has any real value (that is to generate profit in the future) or are manifestations of a bubble?
That means they have value for the VCs (usually in the form of "exits", ie, selling to other investors), but the question was whether they'll produce profits (and consequent dividends).
You're mixing up long term probabilities with short term variance and uncertainty. People can make very big bad choices and not see the consequences for years, because not everything unfolds rapidly.
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent".
How do you evaluate more technical startups like the one you mentioned: Rigetti Quantum Computing. I assume one needs some theoretical quantum physics knowledge to evaluate it.
I generally have very broad but very shallow knowledge. It's helpful because I can screen a lot of different kinds of companies very quickly. If I feel out of my depth I usually know a smart person I can ask to go deep.
But one of the advantages of our model is mistakes of inclusion are cheap.
I'm in a similar boat. I'm considering to strike out on my own. The market doesn't care about your employment gap or something. It only cares if you solves a problem. Though I have to learn nontechnical skils like marketing..etc.
By striking out on your own, you mean launch a business? Highly suggest checking out The Personal MBA, Art of the Start, Fogcreek's Software Management Reading List and a book called SPRINT by Google Ventures! GOOD LUCK!
May be something you want.