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Or just loosen supply side restrictions so much that houses typically don’t go up in value.

It’s really hard to loosen supply side restrictions on “this somehow became a hip neighborhood.” You can in general make more housing available, but not prevent rising prices in specific neighborhoods.

You absolutely can prevent a "hip neighborhood" from becoming the equivalent of a short squeeze. Prices are not only signals of current scarcity, but also future scarcity. Once you've established that any increase in property value will lead to an influx of capital, followed by a swift increase of supply, every increase will partially suffocate itself.

Not everyone needs to live in a hip neighbourhood?

My intuition agrees with the supply side argument. Also higher interest rates to reduce demand? Isn't this how we got here, to these very high house prices worldwide, by a combination of the two? Taxes seem a second order effect here at best.


Of course, the people who already own land in the now-hip neighborhood either don't want it to change and grow at all, or they want the price to go up as much as possible so they can cash out. The existing owner class never have an incentive for ownership to be affordable...

This is always a hilarious idea because like... think one step further amigo...

Residential development already has razor thin margins. Your idea is that people will still do this multi-million (or multi-billion)-dollar projects into an environment of flat or falling sales prices?

The problem is the cost of inputs, full stop. Land and labor (and now materials) are too expensive. Land is the one component that's pretty much a bullshit price, i.e. there's no reason it needs to be high in absolute terms, because the land is all there regardless of the selling price.


The funny thing about land and population growth is that land doesn’t. It’s fixed.

Only in the most literal sense. In a far more accurate sense what we are talking about is land where people want to live and that does grow, more or less, with population growth. It's only a handful of cities with geography that makes desirable land fixed.

and population in developed world is also no longer growing

Immigration means that population will grow in first tier countries.

The premise of real estate (above survival) is living somewhere other people don’t.

Yes. And to clarify we should make the interchange rate being charged above and beyond the list price the default. I dont think merchants will care about rejecting much it’s just consumers with 3% interchange fees will have to pay it and those with 0.1% get it cheaper.

At a glance, looks competitive on the pareto. I hope it retains the flavor of sonnet 5.5 and opus 5.5. Both are extremely good and productive. I have had a lot more issues with gpt 6/6.1 and getting what I want out of them.

How does the 80/20 rule apply to sota models?

Been seeing this term bandied about seemingly overnight -- it’s giving me baader-meinhof vibes



Something looks off in artificial analysis. Benchmarks aren’t everything, but not even close to the Pareto https://artificialanalysis.ai/models/mistral-large-4?cost=in...

I guess lots of token usage.


I’m guessing this is considered something like a C grade from Google if they are being honest with themselves.

After being nowhere near the frontier for a long time, they are pre announcing a model that ranks 3rd, roughly on par with models today that are cheaper.

Good for them to think about releasing to stay in the frontier game.

(I do think 3.7 flash was a solid release, so they are around the conversation. And their image and audio and live models are good)


Cool. But until I can play with it it’s vaporware. I will say I think 3.1 pro is still really good for legal type things. They cooked with that one.

Either mathematical progress helps advance society, in which case progress is a good thing.

Or mathematics is more like a hobby, and while ai may spoil their fun, they need to move on like chess and go players.


That’s a false dichotomy.

Mathematical progress does (quite obviously, on the whole) help advance humanity, so progress is a good thing. The problem is that defunding mathematicians and handing over control to AI and the companies that create them will cause the subject to stagnate. Sure, for a while we might get progress on existing questions using (perhaps quite novel) combinations of existing techniques, but, so far, given the character of the results we’ve seen, there’s no indication that it will continue indefinitely. Even if it did, what would be the point? Huge textbooks full of work no one can understand or benefit from?

One possible analogy is that humans work to add new points to the space of mathematical knowledge, and AI then fleshes this out to attain the ‘convex hull’ of these points. Essentially, humans ‘invent’ the definitions and pose the questions and AI does the grunt work as well as some creative exploitation of known results and tools to bring down all the low-hanging fruit that follows (important note: what appears to be non-low-hanging fruit to us may in fact be technically low hanging once AI is involved; we saw this for example with the Jacobian conjecture). This seems to be the current situation, and to argue that humans are fully replaced it is necessary to argue that AI is adding points outside the convex hull of human mathematics. A sufficient example would be a first-principles AI proof using alien techniques, and this we haven’t seen so far.

The mathematics-chess comparison is, to put it bluntly, nonsense. I see where it comes from, but, as absolutely anyone with any research experience will tell you, mathematics is orders of magnitude (and this really isn’t strong enough) more open-ended, and doesn’t consist of a game one is seeking to ‘win’. The goal is understanding itself.


I think we need to start looking at another approach, can we create interactive reflex games that upload the knowledge from LLM's or perhaps domain specific ones for formal mathematics, so that mathematicians get a similar level of access to the domain of discourse as the LLM?

Or mathematicial progress helps advance society and AI mathematical velocity doesn't offset certain blows to human mathematical velocity yet, so we get to lose progress for the good of an AI company's advertisement.

We don't lose progress by AI solving Navier Stokes. Get a grip on yourselves. I don't think there is a "progress" argument here without tying mathematics to "usefulness", and AI makes mathematics dramatically more useful.

I agree. Its so strange to see an institution externalising their specific problems. If they have a problem, they should adapt and fix it amongst themselves.

Whatabout mathematical progress that ruins humanity even more ? e.g a much more addicted algorithm than tiktok/facebook reel.

What about it? That’s not a mathematical issue.

That’s like saying ‘what about the fact that a man has to walk up to his ex wife to shoot her in the head’ as an attempted criticism of walking.


47 is my crossover for serious things (e.g. Grok 4.7 is below the line and GPT 6 Sol is above the line). I mean, Opus 5.5 is way better, but GPT 6 Sol still gets the job done for anything that doesn't require design thinking.

Although I do think Luna 6 max is ok for some basic things, would never use it for coding myself.


What's the most important task you would/wouldn't trust with an agent below the line?

Jev is orders of magnitudes cheaper and faster, its a very interesting new paradigm. (Jev pioneered this about 2-3 weeks ago).

But is one approach better calibrated and more accurate than the other? And are you implying that OpenAI will use a Jev-like approach?

My guess is that haiku will be a mid release. They don’t seem to care to compete for the low end. Something akin to gpt6 sol level intelligence at $1 / $5 pricing. Then not release an update for 6+ months.

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