Well tbh, hype does tell you something about future demand. It doesn't guarantee sales, but how excited people are about a product gives you an idea of how likely they are to buy it.
I think Nike lost some of its cool while the competition got better. For me, the turning point was walking into a Nike store and thinking their prices were way too high for what I was actually getting.
I reckon they'd be in a much worse position without Jordan. It's still a massive part of their appeal, even if its sales have slowed too.
And the stock market doesn't just look at today's revenue and performance. It also prices in what people expect to happen next. If people think a brand is losing its appeal, they won't necessarily wait for that to fully show up in the numbers.
I get what you are saying, but how can we be talking about skill atrophy when our main skill is changing from being able to produce code ourselves to being able to leverage LLMs to write that code.
At the end of the day there are goals achieved with coding. Coding is a tool to reach either your business needs or some personal aspiration.
When it comes to businesses I don't think a business cares if you used the best stack possible, or you've written it in assembly, as long as it works.
Judging from the biggest coding drivers out there, most of the code produced globally and the biggest apps out there have had skilled engineers writing code but its not always perfect. As long as it works. Lets not forget that the web is build in php and js.
So again my argument is that, are you atrophying a skill that is going to exist in the next 1 to 2 years, or is everything going to shift towards LLM code writting.
Personally I think that LLM code writing is the winner, whether we like it or not, it accelerates business objectives, which at the end of the day its what is the deciding factor.
And yes I do miss the days I was writing code and I was solving complex problems myself.
> At the end of the day there are goals achieved with coding. Coding is a tool to reach either your business needs or some personal aspiration.
This is your opinion and I even share it, but there are many people here for whom writing the code was/is the whole deal. You would not have languages and heck - even editors! - holy wars otherwise.
Yes for sure there are people that writing code is the whole deal.
How many of them are driving goals and businesses though?
Like if we take for example an ex coder like Gabe, someone from his team comes up and says to him "we can launch this game in 1 year by using LLMs, codebase will be meh/okish" or "we can launch this game in 4 years we'll hire the top engineers and write the best software piece ever, a technical novelty".
I already know his answer... even if his answer was the 4 years which won't be, his board would disagree.
So yes there are people that love and enjoy writing software, but the truth is that business is leading software, not the other way around.
For me personally nowadays I don't need languages, I am so deep into coding using LLM's, not vibing, that I don't really mind on what is written.
Also we are just at the start of this thing.
Yes but not always applicable unfortunately… e.g. the other day I was in Italy, I needed to park on the publicly available parking which was paid to the municipality.
No other parking available anywhere near in 30 mins walking distance. (paid or free)
I had to download a 3rd party app that asked me to register. This app isn’t by the Italian government, it’s affiliated though.
So in that situation, I want nothing to do with your website or app, because I wouldn’t able to park.
"They" didn't create them. They laid out the bait - free APIs to do all sorts of stuff, and lazy-ass programmers took the bait hook line and sinker without thinking through the consequences of everyone moving their sites into "the cloud." Or didn't care.
Lot of people need to look in the mirror on this one - from programmers to execs.
I wouldn’t blame programmers. Free APIs and services were a great way to get bootstrapped, and nobody really understood why they existed: an extended period of low interest rates after the 2007/2008 crisis. The bait-and-switch wasn’t a conspiracy, it was a natural consequence of the unusual financial environment (which itself was a kick-the-can “solution” to cover up the damage caused by the GFC).
Almost none of us were deeply familiar with how rates could affect the availability and pricing of services, and the implications for infrastructure. Many of us understand this now, but too late—it’s unlikely that we see rates that low again in our lifetimes.
You might not have used one, but there have long been parking meters / payment kiosks that take charge cards and even cash. Neither an app nor a human attendant is required. It bugs me that these are slowly being replaced by smartphone app systems.
Can you not pay with cash or card anywhere? What if you don't have a "smart" phone? I would categorically refuse to park anywhere that requires running a proprietary app on my device. Fortunately, in the States at least, I have not encountered such a place yet.
In the UK, I believe parking companies need to have a way to pay without the app but it's usually so bloody inconvenient that it's about the same as requiring it.
When I was in Italy last summer, I couldn't figure out how to pay with my card at the machine in a small town, where you'd park to walk into an ancient city on a hill*. I asked two Italian woman for help and even with being able to read the Italian + having paid with coins themselves, they struggled to help me understand the combination of steps required to pay with card.
In my city in Northern California our downtown uses an app for parking now. I don’t use it so it’s still an option, but you have to goto a kiosk, enter your license plate number, and pay with card. It’s made the downtown more of a ghost town (admittedly it was already dying) and the boomers with cash just don’t go. The younger 20somethings all complain “boomers are too stupid to use an app” and have no concern for privacy apparently. Welcome to the future I guess.
I have more parking apps on my phone than any other type of app. I begrudgingly download them for some semblance of convenience, but get annoyed that I'm logging in each time as it may be months since I used it, and towns changing apps means I likely have some high percentage of void apps that I keep around just in case. Living in New England doesn't help with lots of small towns, but even Cambridge has multiple apps depending on if you are parking on the street vs in a garage.
I hear some take pride in being “digital native” and only knowing a world where smartphones are a ubiquitous part of your life.
I’m quite content having grown up without being always online. The childhood I had where what I did between school time and when my parents expected me home for dinner were mine alone. Every event was not recorded by 50+ cameras with bad seats and posted online for nobody to watch.
A truly excellent time to be alive that I doubt we will see again
My wife changed carriers and for a day had lost her phone number. She was texting our son (who is in middle school) and his response was “prove it’s you”.
So digital native kids have learned to not trust people on the internet, don’t use your real name in an alias, etc.
“They were trained not to value privacy” is not what they are being taught in school.
You need to find a working parking metre which may or may not work, accept cards or give back change. Also most if not all of parking apps allow you to pay by the exact minute and extended your stay dynamically from the go, while with a paper ticket you need to go back to the car and get another one before it expires
basically you have to use parkmobile in many places unless you carry literally rolls full of quarters due to the depreciation of the USD, some places dont even have machines anymore. ParkMobile is a moneygrabbing operation that municipalities use to run their parking stuff - yay saas. They got hacked and leaked everyones phone numbers, license plates, history, and more.
The settlement in court was - you got I believe a $1.00 coupon to use parkmobile again - but you could only use .50 towards each transaction
You are eligible for up to a $1.00 credit to be applied to ParkMobile’s service fees. The code provides a $0.25 discount on ParkMobile’s service fees and may be used up to four times for a total discount of $1.00. The code will expire on October 8, 2026. For residents of California, the code will not expire. The code will only work for accounts associated with email addresses that are in the class."
Park City, Utah - although there were meters that could accept card or cash available, none worked. App was the only functional way to pay. This was 3-4 years ago, not during ski season but getting close to it (October or November).
You can't, no. It's the same story in Sicily. You can only pay for parking using an app, if you don't have a smartphone you just can't park. Luckily the parking app they have is pretty nice, but the requirement is infuriating
Sometime ago I had to pay for parking to get access to a hiking trail (in US). The way to pay for parking was shady as hell. Just a random QR code sticker on the wall that said "pay here" that navigated to a payment portal that asked for your CC, address, license plate. I mentioned to my friend who was with me, "anyone could really just put any sort of QR code here and navigate you to a fake payment portal and steal your CC"
But like you said, what are you supposed to do otherwise?
That's actually a common scam that happens, too. It's a constant problem in my city, and while I already have the app downloaded on my phone others do not and find themselves getting nasty bills in the mail months later.
I think in most countries the only way to challenge this kind of thing is to park illegally and then go to court and claim it was impossible for you to park legally. Which is a hard process, on purpose.
In the States, they tow your car to a yard and hold it ransom until you fork out a $1K or so (depends on the state/municipality), with accrued daily surcharges. And, good luck finding the yard. They also only take cash or debit so that you cannot run a chargeback later on. I'd rather just pay a $300 ticket, don't tow my car.
You can try, but you won't be the first and they are going to have lawyers for this exact scenario with decades of legal rulings and legislation often in their favor already. It's not usually worth the time unless you are willing to risk losing many thousands in lawyer costs if you don't win.
- the apps almost always allow you to remotely increase your stay
- the apps almost always allow you to pay by the exact minute instead of by the quarter/half an hour
Yes! I mean everyone is speaking about this in a boxed manner.
For all we know there are might be several reasons for that ban e.g.
1) There is an actual security threat and its just simple as that.
2) Someone wants Anthropic to be valued way higher and the companies that have invested in Anthropic already... This ban only validates this product and will move the market in higher valuation of Anthropic due to their model being "so good gov had to ban"
3) Someone doesn't like Anthropic and just wants to shut down its current edge (highly unlikely, if there was no IPO filing in place it could be possible but now the valuation just goes up, same as the 2 As that have invested in them)
4) Someone freaked out that we'll be left out of jobs soon so wants to slow down progress, tbh using fable so far I can tell that a lot of jobs can be made redundant cause of that...
For me the most likely for now is 2, then 1 and then maybe 4.
On June 22 Chatgpt will most likely come out with their new model too, which as I understand will be an answer to mythos. Lets see if the US gov goes the same route.
It's not that complicated. Probably what happened is just that a former Fox News host read part of a security report that he did not understand and overreacted.
I do not understand why it being mandated that the vast majority of the people in the world will not allowed to use -- or pay for -- your product (and that the ones that can will have to jump through excessive hoops) could ever make your valuation go up; can you walk me through that one?
Even if this is just temporary, your #3 is more in direct conflict with #2 than you seem to be willing to admit: if you were to own stock in a company that you know has a powerful product and a market lead, but they have been required to take a time out in the market for a year, that should be devastating for their valuation.
Because nowadays the stockmarket is build upon hype, this is why we are having the market caps and valuations we are having that are in any way shape or form reflecting anything that is real.
For the Gov to come out and block a model for national security, its gonna swing the market into thinking "oh anthropic really has the next generation of LLMs out there, its that good Gov banned it, this company is going to the moon".
The part of banning non US nationals, I believe is a legality, as in they have to trust US citizens to do right by their country. I don't think in court a whole ban on a product for security reasons would stand. (The judge would ask for the gov to explain why all US nationals are a security threat to their country)
Nevertheless, again I am standing behind number 2 personally as the main reason for such a thing, market manipulation is not new and its currently at its all time high. Also anthropic is part of this manipulation so far, with every other AI company out there.
Again I am just presenting my POV, it could as well just be number 1... A gov became competent enough to find security threads before they happen :)
I get what you mean but you are very wrong about the stock market and how people react to export bans. Everytime US had restricted control for Nvidia chips in the news over the last few years, the stock price went down not up.
It might be a good marketing trick but it is not a good thing in the stock market given historical trends.
Your view highly screams you only have a superficial understanding of financial markets and you shouldn't extraploate that to "this is how market works because its all hype and everything is vapor"
No, its not apples and oranges. How/why does it boost their IPO directly? Elaborate on this please instead of stating it as an universal fact (because it isn't).
I feel you are just talking a hypothetical without having any basis. You think it'll have an impact on IPO directly and that it will be a positive one. But you have no proof or historical precidence for the same. Meanwhile we have historical proof that markets reacts negatively when a company is blocked by the government on selling their top products freely. And that is most likely going to happen here as well.
Public perception might be changed by these "ohhh its so scary guys" marketing but these don't translate to actual market perception when it comes to actual facts and numbers on the financials.
You can't justify trillions of market cap just serving the US market, and they've just kneecapped their ability to compete anywhere else, it would be delusional to invest on something like this thinking it's going to be a free market, you'd just be indirectly funding the US government ability to use AI against others, especially if you are a non-US citizen (or a subgroup of US citizens they don't like). The near-term world-ending is just pure marketing, they haven't shown anything nearly as impressive as they've been promising, and the software they've produced so far with near infinite access to agents has been very impressively bad.
It could be the case that we’ve reached the last generation of frontier models that can be accessed by the general public. That eliminates a risk that Anthropic could be leapfrogged by a competitor.
Now it’s a competition between products on the near frontier. Anthropic has executed well on products so far. They blew up thanks to Claude Code, not Opus by itself.
5) Someone freaked out China might use the model to advance its own tech. It's always China with this administration. The guy has an obsession with China since he had to hire feng shui consultants to make his tower appealing¹ for Chinese customers.
Also, might be a way to further screw with Anthrophic because they refused to remove their guardrails Pentagon, getting the opposite result of what was intended.
If (1) then somebody in the administration messed up badly. Glasswing has been a thing since April, and it's common knowledge that there would be some fuzzy edges around whatever restrictions a model has in place. There's no reason to let it launch and then pull it back.
(2) This "hype" meme is overrated. Enterprises (ones without a horse in the race, at least) will choose the model their best engineers ask for, or their competitors will lap them. I have been finding Codex more useful (even than Fable) but for a lot of tasks it seems that Claude Code is faster. This is one customer base where the general consensus here on HN is more influential than anything the Trump administration could do or anything Anthropic could say.
(3) "US government seems out to kill you" does not necessarily make valuation go up, and we've already seen this administration in an avoidable spat with Anthropic.
(4) This seems way less likely than a mix of (1) and (3) to me. The arguments for banning a useful technology to save jobs haven't really made sense since cars or indoor plumbing and don't get taken too seriously in either party at senior levels. That could change but it will take a lot for it to change.
Eh, chatGpt coming out with a new garbage model. Great.
Fable had some really good cross project awareness. My only complaint is it backported a feature to my test application and then they killed it before I could finish debugging it. The new model behavior in the replacement application was 100% superior. I just didn't know it was going to start porting fixes so readily between projects. Awareness in the new model is amazing and the feedback I've had from other developers is the same. It feels like ultrathink with double the agents of xhigh effort. The real issue is they shipped it with incomplete guardrails and someone likely found an exploit.
The Trump administration has exactly one motive, and that is accumulation of wealth. There is literally no other reason they would do anything. Even if there were legitimate economic or security concerns, those aren't motivating to the Trump administration.
This is about grift, somehow, full stop.
I neither like nor support Anthropic, but there's just no sense in pretending the Trump administration is anything other than a kleptocracy or interpreting their actions under any other lens.
Personally I believe that our communities and mental health deteriorate through social media especially in a young age.
Although I am a firm believer of the above, I do not believe that Governments are doing it because they do care about our health.
Quite the opposite. I believe they want to manipulate us as much as they can so they can keep in power.
Although they want that, they have seen that social media has the power on gathering people and creating protests, so I believe they want to cut it off on younger people that usually have way more anger and got much less to lose (nowadays that the light at the end of the tunnel is fading) than a middle-aged man being mind-controlled his whole life being a good abiding citizen.
Its a power tool, they are just swinging it where they want. Soonish in EU we'll have the same ban, but it won't be because EU politicians cares about children, it is so they can keep their power and not have a generation that has access to other sources than traditional media and structured schools grooming them on just obeing their masters.
Are political revolutions really brought about by children under 16? I think there's an argument that these policies push for identifying adults and that that might stifle speaking out, but I don't think any of it would be about stifling uprising from 15 year olds.
And when you speak of governments doing this to stay in power: which governments? All political parties in general? Just typical old-school politicians? Because there's a fairly atypical leader in the US, and there's an atypical rising force in Australia, and so on, and I think their popularity is stronger in older age brackets than aforementioned 15 year old.
>the disinformation you see on social media about subjects like vaccines.
Governments produced far more disinformation about vaccines than social media, like claiming the covid vaccines reduced transmission when the studies behind them never claimed that and the actual data showed that clearly wasn't the case.
I mean are we forgetting about kids gambling lootboxes in CS and Valve doing nothing to regulate it?
I mean yes compared to the rest of the gaming companies that are long way gone like Blizzard etc, Valve seems to be the better, but its not like they are saints...
It always amazes me how us as people forget the past (which is not even far away).
I agree with plenty of what you are saying, at the same time I believe that joining problematic start-ups or failing start-ups can teach you plenty on how not do things.
Remember that before succeeding you have to fail and improve in a cycle of n times until you succeed. If you succeed without failing then there is a high probability of luck being involved.
Usually its the extremes that are having the same effects.
Atm I am in a super demanding job, requiring me to overwork, make decisions on the spot, work on problems etc.
On my free time while I want to sit down and watch some TV, go for running, enjoy a nice dinner or whatever... I FEEL EMPTY!
I am fixated with my work... its not healthy and its creating low motivation for me. It feels like work has taken away all pleasures in life for me. It is not HEALTHY at all (I am currently seeing professionals about it)
Generally anything in moderation is key...
P.S. I do overwork myself for someone else to enjoy the fruits of my labour... sad story.
sounds like the beginnings of either burnout, depression or both. I'm in a job that's not quite demanding enough at the moment and it caused me to fall into a depression. It's good to catch it in time to do something about it.
"So stripe here would charge an EU card from its EU entity, US from the US, GB from GB etc etc, regardless of where the merchant is actually located. Maybe there is something fundamentally different with the workings of Visa / MC payments and clearing though that means this is not possible?"
Not really. The transaction happens on the country the merchant Operates.
If you are a merchant within the EU and stripe accepts a txn on your behalf, if that txn is from a card issued by a UK institution you will be charged the extra fee.
>The transaction happens on the country the merchant Operates.
In order to achieve what parent said, the merchant will have to have a legal entity in every single country where they have customers in, and setup payment processing account within those jurisdiction.
So I am wonder at what sort of revenue does it make sense to do this. Assuming this process could somehow be automated / abstracted and the only cost are legal and accounting. ( i.e Cost that cant be avoided )
I'd imagine there are ways to set up such entities for not a lot of money, but selling to a jurisdiction has a lot more obligations when you're a legal entity in that jurisdiction instead of just exporting to it.
Personal experience has taught me that there is a MAXIMUM amount of COMP that you will receive as an employee, no matter how much hard work you put into your company.
So basically what is happening, is that you are working hard for some achievements, that someone else is going to benefit off.
Yes. Compensation is best measured as hourly rate: $/h. Working too hard just decreases that ratio because work hours increase while money stays constant.
> Working too hard just decreases that ratio because work hours increase while money stays constant
I assume this may hold for the US, but not for many other countries. For example in my country the hourly rate for overtime hours is higher by law. Your hourly compensation decrease while working longer would only decrease if you were an external contractor paid a fixed amount of money for completion of a specific task.
We aren't really talking about overtime though, which also exists in the US, but the amount of output during a normal 8 hour day. You might get paid somewhat more than a peer for putting out 2x the output but there are massive diminishing returns.
What I was responding to literally talked about "work hours increase". I don't see how you can have "work hours increase" and simultaneously keep the same "normal 8 hour day". That sounds contradictory to me.
Even for salaried employees it is not rational to work too hard. You may spend 8 hours at work but you don't spend every minute of that time actually working. You could optimize that if you wanted but you're not going to be rewarded proportionally if at all. Returns diminish quickly and that's if your efforts are even noticed. Burning oneself out to finish something quickly can even backfire since managers can always just find more work that needs to be done.
> Personal experience has taught me that there is a MAXIMUM amount of COMP that you will receive as an employee, no matter how much hard work you put into your company.
Sure, but putting more craft and care and study in your tasks benefits you a lot too.
e.g. I have spent two weeks on an airbnb-like image gallery, could've completed the task in four days, used the time to become black belt in images in the browser, which makes ME a considerably better and more prepared professional. The way I see it I'm getting paid for educating and specializing myself. AND it benefits my current employer and our customers.
Meanwhile my colleagues rush into the next task don't rip any of these benefits.
I think Nike lost some of its cool while the competition got better. For me, the turning point was walking into a Nike store and thinking their prices were way too high for what I was actually getting.
I reckon they'd be in a much worse position without Jordan. It's still a massive part of their appeal, even if its sales have slowed too.
And the stock market doesn't just look at today's revenue and performance. It also prices in what people expect to happen next. If people think a brand is losing its appeal, they won't necessarily wait for that to fully show up in the numbers.