The same as the distribution of companies which are profitable over time and grow steadily, vs the others which clumsily flail around to somehow stay alive. To the winner go the spoils, and the winners will be a tiny fraction of companies, same as it ever was.
A way I look at it is that all net wealth creation in public companies has come from just 4% of businesses:
It'll be similar with software companies. 4% of them will hit on a unique cultural and organizational track which will let them thrive, probably using AI in one form or another. The other 96% will be lucky to stay alive.
This is a common problem for people trying to run the GPT-oss models themselves. Reposting my comment here:
GPT-oss-120B was also completely failing for me, until someone on reddit pointed out that you need to pass back in the reasoning tokens when generating a response. One way to do this is described here:
Once I did that it started functioning extremely well, and it's the main model I use for my homemade agents.
Many LLM libraries/services/frontends don't pass these reasoning tokens back to the model correctly, which is why people complain about this model so much. It also highlights the importance of rolling these things yourself and understanding what's going on under the hood, because there's so many broken implementations floating around.
GPT-oss-120B was also completely failing for me, until someone on reddit pointed out that you need to pass back in the reasoning tokens when generating a response. One way to do this is described here:
Once I did that it started functioning extremely well, and it's the main model I use for my homemade agents.
Many LLM libraries/services/frontends don't pass these reasoning tokens back to the model correctly, which is why people complain about this model so much. It also highlights the importance of rolling these things yourself and understanding what's going on under the hood, because there's so many broken implementations floating around.
> Having read a few criticms of PMs on HN, I can imagine the "your companies just didn't hire the good PMs" comments incoming
Everything you said in your post is true, especially about 90% of PMs being presenteeist yes men. Indeed most PMs are at best a waste of time, and at worst a net negative to the company and anything they touch.
However, a good PM is worth their weight in gold. I maintain the cynical view that 80% of the work done at any large company is useless. That's why a good PM is so invaluable
A good PM is the difference between your project aimlessly spinning its wheels and changing directions for 8 quarters (like most projects), or relentless execution with full focus and rewards from higher-ups.
Clarifying what executives want, nudging their worst impulses towards something more productive, maintaining focus and clear communication amongst multiple teams with competing priorities, working with engineers to design features and schedule them realistically on the road map, exploring the company beyond your current team to find impactful projects to work on or to join forces with... All these things are exhausting, painstaking, and take a level of attention to technical details and human affairs which most of us don't have the patience or energy to deal with. It's more than a full time job.
But if a PM does it successfully, you actually ship important stuff, and that stuff is so important that it moves the whole company forward, and improves the bottom line so much that no one can ignore it. And that's why the PM role continues to exist, despite most of its practitioners being useless suckups. The impact just one PM can deliver by shipping a successful and important project at a large company outweighs all the useless baggage that is the rest of their colleagues. And that's why you continue to invest in your PM org, and hope you get a few nuggets of gold amongst all those turds.
Yes that's a nice sales pitch for PMs to exist. I have never criticised PMs as being totally pointless. I've worked with some decent enough ones.
I'm guessing you're a PM or have been? You did the classic 'opening agree to disarm, then disagree with a long sales pitch' that they're so good at ;)
It seems to me you're vastly overselling the impact of even the 50th percentile of PMs
I think project management is useful (I'm not going to get in the weeds of PM vs PM vs PO etc). But I feel we've over-promoted classic project managers into roles driving product direction without them having the experience or acumen for it.
A way I look at it is that all net wealth creation in public companies has come from just 4% of businesses:
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2900447
https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/rk4udc/only_4_of...
It'll be similar with software companies. 4% of them will hit on a unique cultural and organizational track which will let them thrive, probably using AI in one form or another. The other 96% will be lucky to stay alive.
Same as it ever was.
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