Same. It's a nightmare from a Porter's Five Forces perspective.
There will be a ton of businesses competing in this space, and there will be something of a moat due to how capital intensive the business can be, but there will still basically be infinite competitors.
Right, and it’s just the wrong, maybe weirdest correlation to suggest, and I’m someone that loves to find unexpected connections between things. ZIRP had nothing to do with this “no-man” phenomenon, it predated ZIRP.
And in the agentic world, that liability is both minimized and amplified. Teams that successfully mitigate AI risks will be able to churn out massive amounts of sustainable code.
> a UI that makes claude code or codex accessible to the average user.
It'll just be power users. We're moving toward a world of significantly fewer analysts and more into "Super SMEs" that can actually learn tools like Claude and manage enormous complexity with them.
Just giving average users these tools will produce garbage. This example from Claude is so contrived and any business analyst can see how a process that requires uploading additional data will fail. You can't expect users that don't even know their own data to be able to make this thing work.
There will be no "average" user in the future. It'll be multi-disciplinary SMEs that are extremely creative and knowledgeable about their businesses.
Sadly I feel the Excel analogy holds still, where maybe 80% of its users can't write a SUMIF() formula or make a pivot table to save their lives, yet they will happily use Excel every day as digital grid paper. Meanwhile Microsoft made a lot of money selling Excel licenses.
It’s my favorite analogy against the cliche LLM will revolutionize all white collar work. Excel is probably the most powerful business application most people have used, but as you said, people only scratch the surface. No LLM magic will make people more fluent with software. Sadly it’s a combination of not knowing what you don’t know, and time pressure from the employer. My analogy usually ends by saying that if the government mandated 200 hours of Excel courses, it would probably be a faster and cheaper productivity leap than adding an LLM into everything.
I think you’re underestimating “average users”. If we talk about the median, then probably you’re right, but if we talk about “the group of people clustered around the average” I think there’s a lot of untapped potential, especially in people who assumed data and programming were unknowable/impossible and have therefore been held back by “good” tools like excel
> Looks like Elon's finally giving up on XAI and just selling the compute
I don't think that's certain yet, but I do think that the open-source models like Gemma and Qwen are getting so good so fast that even Anthropic has real risk around the long-term value of their models and tooling.
Basically, if I'm Anthropic or xAI, I try to get revenue whenever and wherever possible and see what sticks. There's no value in playing for monopolistic control when everything is so volatile.
Exactly, but Hacker News is upvoting this because it wants the US to be seen as the loser of this conflict.
Both sides in a conflict (or any negotiation) make demands that they know the other will not accept. You can't just take someone's list like that and assume that'll be the exact outcome.
As does this one. The 10 points aren't the agreed-upon terms, though. The agreed-upon terms are: stop bombing for two weeks, and open the straits for two weeks.
hackers are often leftwing sweaty tryhards, obviously not all of them ;) but whatever, let them suck on those circumsized penis while the local paki rape gangs rule the streets of europe.
You arguably can't run gorilla large-scale manufacturing. There are obvious limits to what you can achieve when the opposition can run decapitation strikes every few months.
lol no, they both have lost substantial influence in Iran... the US has been chipping away at the spheres of influence for both China and Russia in recent months, first with Venezuela and now Iran. Hopefully Cuba is next.
And the US surveillance capabilities are substantially greater than they were during the Iraq and Vietnam wars. Smuggling in drones or missiles isn't some trivial affair.
And again, if they do that, we just decapitate their leadership again. And again. Until they stop.
This sounds a bit delusional. You do see the difference between venezuela and iran right? How the first went smoothly for the US and the other absolutely isnt.
And the talk of chipping away at russia and china's influence in iran, youdo know that iran is asking for payment in yuan to let ships through. The US invaded iraq to maintain the petro dollar and now iran os flagrantly subverting it and backing china's currency
Same. It's a nightmare from a Porter's Five Forces perspective.
There will be a ton of businesses competing in this space, and there will be something of a moat due to how capital intensive the business can be, but there will still basically be infinite competitors.
Great for consumers.
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