If I was a NOAA meteorologist I'd be making bank insider trading temperature prediction markets.

Maybe this could be an alternative funding source for weather prediction, haha.

How can prediction markets be priced with continuous instead of discrete predictions?

They usually divide into buckets

But wouldn’t that be a feature of the prediction market, not a bug?

If someone really smart knows what will happen, that will make the market’s predictive ability more accurate.

That's always been a just-so story invented to justify insider trading. If weather predictors always bet on a weather prediction market, why would anyone else? They'd be guaranteed to lose money.

1) Not all expert weather predictors agree. They can bet against each other.

2) retail traders lose money and know far less than institutional investors, but do retail traders participate in the stock market? Of course they do.

Yet somehow Microsoft Copilot doesn't know how to use that tooling.

Promotion-driven development happens at Microsoft just like any other big tech company.

This is totally true, if you ignore the entire history of taxation in the United States during the 19th and 20th centuries.

Taxes are a part of a broader redistributive system.

Mobility is given by ensuring that all have equal opportunity. Opportunity to learn, opportunity to start a business. Etc.

Tesla single-handedly created the market for EVs. There are over 9 million Teslas on the road worldwide. That's a much bigger return on their subsidies than most government programs.

Have you forgotten about the Nissan Leaf? Tesla created the market for expensive sports car EVs, but Nissan made the market for EVs for the mainstream.

The Tesla Roadster came out first, by a couple years, but only sold about 2500 over its lifetime. By the time Tesla got its second model out, a couple years after Leaf went on sale, Leaf had 50k sales.

It took until 2020 for Tesla cumulative sales to catch up with Leaf cumulative sales.

The first generation Leaf belongs more to the early curiosity phase of EVs than the mainstream. Funny looking, less than 100 miles range, and slow charging via a port that never caught on outside of Japan. Tesla didn't just build a car that addressed the biggest EV objections (range, charging speed, looks), they also built a DCFC network that has more ports than all of the other ones combined. Without the charging network there is no EV market.

Maybe that's true but maybe it also isn't? Tesla or no Tesla, China would've thrown incentives at domestic EV makers to reduce their dependence on oil imports. Without Tesla maybe there would be fewer EVs in North America and Europe today. But I don't see history playing out very differently elsewhere. The economics are just too strong.

Human knowledge belongs to humanity. Of course the people who want to paywall it and extract rent will try to concoct some ethical basis for their rent seeking. Anthropic appears to be choosing the xenophobic route.

I don’t think China will see it that way if they take the lead. So, why help them?

They wont take a lead becuase the ai companies have a lot more data for continual learning for their RL systems to work. I would not be untrusting of the chinese. They are way ahead of us in fusion technology and they regularly keep sharing that knowledge with us

Not sure why the dumb money keeps playing. If you're not the insider the person you're trading against is.

Because its an event contract with a defined upside/downside and time horizon. You know exactly what you stand to lose and gain and when. Makes it a valuable part of some intricate financial strategies.

Plus casinos exist. Why do people play blackjack.

"the dumb money"

Because you think you can predict the probability of the insider insidering each way and place a bet before they insider

There's no inherent reason to restrict the number of TLDs. The best way to combat rent seeking from registries is to allow any organization that has the technical capability to operate a registry.

Why do companies and organizations get special treatment over regular people? I think a simpler fix is just to ban any companies that register domains from squatting on them.

Were regular people prohibited from applying for TLDs when applications were open?

Not that I know many people who would have been interested in paying the fees.

The bigger problem is the rent seeking some registrars are doing now by increasing prices. Not sure what domain portability might look like (maybe requiring multiple registrars per tld), but something like it would solve this problem.

Politics in the US is a $11 trillion per year business. Money is inherent.