How much of this is the current uncertainty over politics in the US? With the incredibly frustrating aspect that we can't really directly discuss exactly how corrupt a few of the main actors have been, to date.
And the oddest fear is precisely what will happen if we start trying to ramp up a bit of what used to be normal accountability?
>How much of this is the current uncertainty over politics in the US?
Would you like to posit a theory? The article says nothing about this, and states entirely different causes. This concern seems rather tangential to recent market activity
It’s rather obvious that if the dems take the senate and the congress next week, it will be fight for survival for the ruling top, with Trump at the top spot, as they will be looking at a very real possibility of getting trialed and jailed.
Given what Trump did when he lost the election, we can bet that whatever comes now will be way way more nasty and disruptive.
Then, if the dems don't win, it will imply a massive scale of election fraud, which too will stir sh*t in another, but equally significant way.
So one way or another, the market volatility is all but guaranteed, and a significant market slide is also very likely as people will be parking in cash/gold for a while. And weak tech earnings is just the right trigger.
I thought you were referring to Dems adopting an anti-datacenter stance.
A clamp on down on DC construction would basically slam the current economy into a wall.
Lots of people celebrate that as being some kind of end of AI, but it wouldn't be, it would ultimately just throw gas on the fire of "we need to cut heads, figure out how to get AI to leverage your productivity".
If the Democrats win they will of course impeach Trump, but he can't be convicted without 2/3 of the Senate, and the Democrats have no chance of attaining that in the Senate. So the only chance of Trump being convicted while in office is if the Republicans turn on him, which I don't see happening without something very dramatic happening, like him attempting (and hopefully failing) to use nuclear weapons against Iran.
The can of whoop-ass the entire Republican party is about to take at every level on every ballot in every state might just be sufficient to alert some Senators that it's time to jump ship.
Obviously Republicans will win a large number of these elections, but even their victories will be a source of great alarm.
Trump doesn’t lose support of congresspeople except those on their way out. I don’t suspect nukes would change that equation, despite wreaking havoc on markets and humanity as a whole. The right wing propaganda machine would find an angle (probably fear of imminent attack) to make it seem prudent and even heroic. The reins have been shredded for a long time and the horse just keeps running wild, cheered on by those who would have any power to wrangle it.
At what point do constituents of Republican Senators have an influence over them?
Democratic and Republican voters are suffering equally.
At some point of rising costs of living, Republicans will break with dying Trump. They’ll blame his old age, and as Lindsey Graham put it “that Hitler shit.”
It won’t happen overnight, but I would love to see the source on those figures.
Trump is cancelling rallies left and right in key states as we speak, because he has put himself and “that Hitler shit” on the midterm ballot, and it’s not going well.
The man claims he doesn’t know who David Duke or the KKK is, like we’re all that stupid.
All while he sends Americans to die in Iran for “nuclear weapons” while ignoring North Korea’s heist of $5B in crypto to do the same. Giving Russia billions of U.S. tax dollars for a few days worth of diesel just prolongs the Ukrainian defense against their invasion.
How’s the national debt cost per American trending since the start of the 2nd term? Has the massive taxpayer funded budget increase been worth ICE detaining 500 American citizens and killing at least three citizens without any shred of accountability?
You may be right that 75% of ~50% of voters approve, but the negligent spending without accountability will only be allowed to go so far. Fiscal conservatives will step in when their stock prices tank.
Reminder that while the election for the next congress is next week, the next congress is seated in January. The political agendas from that new congress will likely materialize after the results of the election as campaign promises conform to the political realities of who has a majority, and by what margin.
Yeah this has to be some of it. No coincidence certain industries in the market always shifts up or down significantly just before and after each election, as people try to read the tea leaves of how a shift in political power will affect them.
Some of it is also just political fighting making it inconvenient to sign contracts and do work specifically right now. Even places that have favorable build out plans for data centers have strong fears on moving forward with them with how much political ads are using them as a focus.
Good news on that front is that political fighting typically evaporates with the campaigns. Bad news, of course, is that it typically comes back with them. So contracts have to be executed stupid quick.
Which flat out makes some things like the CHIPS act non-starters as long as we can't trust the next administration to give a good faith attempt at executing and honoring what came before.
> makes some things like the CHIPS act non-starters as long as we can't trust the next administration
Bidens CHIPS Act is still largely intact though isn't it? The next admin changed some things, renegotiated some implementation details, and even expanded parts of the subsidies. But I believe it is still moving forward at basically the same scale as was originally envisioned.
My understanding is that more than a few of the things it planned were thrown into chaos. The new TSMC stuff is still planned, but it isn't hard to imagine that will hit more problems with how tantrum driven the current admin is. And tariffs and general posturing on trade wars is hurting everything.
Apologies, I didn't mean that at a personal level. Obvious the conversation here is happening. I was more gesturing at the national media which is basically eggshell walking around this admin.
A bunch of tech companies reported this week and nasdaq is being hit hardest.
Political uncertainty has an impact but it's presently outsized by tech. The president is well-insulated from "normal accountability". He won't be impeached so he can continue manipulating the market and self-dealing.
> How much of this is the current uncertainty over politics in the US?
Uncertainty that just developed overnight?
> With the incredibly frustrating aspect that we can't really directly discuss exactly how corrupt a few of the main actors have been, to date.
What does that have to do with Intel, Amazon, and Google's financial results?
And where did you get the impression that no one can "discuss" any of this? A minute doesn't go by that someone isn't talking about Trump. Including you, regarding a completely unrelated topic.
Agreed. I have no doubt I could throw curveballs at it, but it has been getting things mostly correct for a while. And the fact that I can follow up with a direct challenge is kind of nice.
I think I could be ok with it, as long as I can query it. Preferable if I have a way to directly interact with it that isn't just moving things around; though honestly this is no different than many physical machines. Consider, what does the accelerator pedal do in a car that is not in gear? And consider that changing gears is done on a completely separate input mechanism.
(Really, people don't engage more with physical machines to consider programming. We insist that everything has to be distilled down to symbolic functions. Preferably limited inputs and a single output. If only life was so accommodating.)
> I think I could be ok with it, as long as I can query it. Preferable if I have a way to directly interact with it that isn't just moving things around;
`CD` without any arguments will display the current directory on the current drive.
`CD E:` will display the current directory on the `E:` drive.
AI promised less work for given output. Same as any technological change ever. And same as any previous advancement, it immediately increased output of existing/known things.
Does anyone have the numbers on social media participation? I don't think anyone thought that their ability to execute media influencing activities was completely shutdown, but it did seem that social media was a lot quieter for a time.
Easy hypothesis would be that they were (probably accidentally) reliant on the news scraping bots to find where to focus responses and such. Would be like realizing a lot of US things do down when AWS' us-east goes down. It isn't literally where everything is hosted. A lot of things have accidental dependencies that go through there, though.
Right, I guess I'm largely swayed by the argument that responses and likes were heavily impacted. Something responses down thread of that post seem to corroborate.
It is also hard not to see the obvious response from Musk and Putin as indicative that something worked.
While this is true, there is a gaping hole in how foreign agents can amplify influencers on youtube and twitter. Probably even facebook, at this point.
Yes, constraint learning is a huge deal. And there is a fun trick to solving sudoku that is basically this. Someone realized that you can essentially build an extra ring around the board that has the same constraints as elsewhere. Phistomefel Ring is the name, I believe. (This may be a different one, I just reached for the first thing a google search found for my vague description.)
Agreed. I don't know if I would be shocked, but I would be surprised.
This is one that is hard for people to really internalize, I think? The SAT solvers many are likely to use today are not at all the same as the ones they would have used 20 years ago. They have made some amazing advances in how to approach those problems.
There are also probably some very poorly conceived models that people use to adapt a problem to some of these solvers.
And the oddest fear is precisely what will happen if we start trying to ramp up a bit of what used to be normal accountability?
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