The one truly hopeful aspect of a bubble-burst scenario is that extra capacity always finds a use-case, and in this case practically any other use-case would be both less harmful and more real.

Before the AI craze, all the GPUs were being bought up by cryptocurrency miners, and I'm not sure that's better. Even as an AI skeptic I think AI is a better use of all this hardware than cryptocurrency.

You're right of course, I'm taking for granted that we've been there and done that. The question is, would we do it again and would that usage really be allowed to expand to soak up whole data centers? We might since I don't think a cynic has made a bad prediction in years..

IMO the most likely way to soak up the extra capacity is actually yet another iteration of AI rather than say, doing productive but boring work with any other techniques for curing disease or something. Still, a crash and a next iteration might be more likely to involve fresh ideas on architecture, or focus on smaller expert models that have less fake results and actually empower users. Right now I think there's a clear bias in research and execution. OFANG does want results, but also wants results that tech giants. Are subsymbolic techniques really the best techniques, or are they just the best at preserving the moat of big-data and big-compute?

I think it's both more simple and more complex than AI or out-sourcing, though these are symptoms. Leadership everywhere is just kind of moving further away from reality, and don't care about progress, results, or fundamentals as they focus more on optics and spin, and controlling narratives or choices. Circular financing, ad fraud, trendy scam products or whole sectors.. does anyone want to do anything real when it's easier to make huge profits being fake? Enshittification is another sign of the times, but that's just about products and platforms, we need a better term. That leadership really wants a scammy rotten economy/product/company which ignores quality isn't that surprising, but the extent to which investors and even workers are often onboard too is surprising. Vandalism economy? Expertise simply isn't valued for the same reason that enlightenment values and rationalism generally are on the decline, in SWE sure, but also just in general.