It's an interesting hypothesis, but I don't think I agree. The selection pool for women is smaller in STEM, therefore less women means less exceptional women.
> particularly for open source projects because they are genuinely interested in improving the code
I reject this on the grounds that there's no reason why women would be more interested in improving the code than men.
> "Will people reject this because I'm a woman? Better make sure it's as good as it possibly can be so they can't reject it based on that."
I'd be surprised to learn that this was the thought process of the majority of women, let alone most of them.
> selection pool for women is smaller in STEM, therefore less women means less exceptional women
This is only true if you assume women in STEM are a random sampling. If you consider survivorship bias, it's quite possible that the cohort of women who persist are better, despite being fewer in number.
The same is also true for men, unless you start with the belief that the misogyny is a baseline factor that women have to deal with. But that's what this analysis is trying to figure out. Chicken and egg maybe?
> particularly for open source projects because they are genuinely interested in improving the code
I reject this on the grounds that there's no reason why women would be more interested in improving the code than men.
> "Will people reject this because I'm a woman? Better make sure it's as good as it possibly can be so they can't reject it based on that."
I'd be surprised to learn that this was the thought process of the majority of women, let alone most of them.