Well, considering that the Presidential election is this year... (the Republican) Congress will not confirm any nomination from President Obama before the election is over. So, I imagine that the appointment won't happen until after the election cycle. This makes the Congressional races a bit more interesting.
No. Look what happened when Bush was president, and the democrats stalled the election of supreme court justices. The republicans control 53 senate seats, and can refuse to confirm any justice till they know the outcome of the presidential election. If Trump wins, they'll stall until he takes office. If Sanders or Clinton wins, then they will grudgingly confirm who Obama chooses with some limits.
Another key point: the Democrats didn't say going into the nomination that no matter who Bush nominates they will reject. They were prepared to debate and decide on the nomination based on the merits of the nominee, not a blanket statement saying "we will not agree to anything, ever" - which is how the GOP has behaved during the Obama administration.
I said this above, but I'll repeat: if they do not reject, their Republican base will revolt and not vote in the upcoming election. They will absolutely be expected to reject and oppose until Obama is out of office. There are 2 sides in the political game, remember. And since supreme court nominations are so important, and this changes the balance, voters will demand they reject his nominees.
I don't know. Given the timetable and the fact that neither the Republican Party or voters can say who will win the presidential election, it seems like there would be room for a qualified, centrist candidate.
> if they do not reject, their Republican base will revolt and not vote in the upcoming election.
The upcoming election is a general election; they need to appeal to more than their base. In the past year the Republicans in Congress have been trying to shed their obstructionist, irresponsible reputation as the party that shuts down government, holds the solvency of the U.S. hostage, etc.
I wish them good luck with that, considering that the reputation of the GOP as uniquely obstructive in comparison with previous Congresses is purely a construction of media propaganda and is therefore not going to be overturned merely by their good behavior.
(A Democratic Senate slow-rolled or blocked innumerable Bush judicial nominees, some for several years, and the Democratic Congress shut down the government several times under Reagan. Both sides have the power to do these things, and have exercised them freely in the past, and somehow the world continued to turn.)
> the reputation of the GOP as uniquely obstructive in comparison with previous Congresses is purely a construction of media propaganda
I'm pretty sure that's not the case. For example, I know the recent GOP Senators used dramatically more fillibusters than anyone before. Also, I'm pretty that some basic fiscal issues like raising the debt limit weren't politicized before recently.
> somehow the world continued to turn
I think this is a dangerous belief. Actions, especially by the U.S. Senate, have serious consequences for millions to billions of people. The world merely continuing to turn is not a standard; there are serious problems in the world that need to be addressed well, or human welfare in the U.S. and elsewhere will suffer greatly.
> I think this is a dangerous belief. Actions, especially by the U.S. Senate, have serious consequences for millions to billions of people. The world merely continuing to turn is not a standard; there are serious problems in the world that need to be addressed well, or human welfare in the U.S. and elsewhere will suffer greatly.
Was this also the case when Democrats blocked George W. Bush's judicial nominees for years, or shut down the government half a dozen time under Reagan? You can't have it both ways.
I didn't ask for it both ways. However, as I said, I don't believe the earlier events rise to the level of what the GOP has done recently. If they block a Supreme Court appointment for 11 months it certainly will be unprecendented.
I'm merely speculating as to why the Judge who was quoted said what he said. But, yes, of course. 10 months is a long time to stall a nomination. I don't know of any precedent in this situation.
Hah, good point. But I guess the idea is that this is a major issue that will be in the spotlight. Tons of scrutiny and no way to cover what might be their obvious motives to avoid an appointment. The circumstances are extra-ordinary.
edit/ Some words.