The longest confirmation in history was apparently Brandeis at 125 days. Assuming Obama takes about a month to get a nomination together that leaves just over 300+ days left in this administration. That said, would not surprise me to see the Senate serially find reasons to reject say 3-4 candidates or screw precedent and just take forever to run out the clock on purpose.
They will likely also have pro forma sessions to deny a recess appointment as well [1].
One option Obama would have that might fill the seat before his term is up is to go back to providing a real list of a number of candidates instead of the "list of one". The chance of this happening is near zero of course; I guess he'll nominate someone a bit closer to the center and let them be stonewalled, something which may help the democrats in the election.
I imagine a lot of good candidates, knowing the nomination is destined for limbo, might opt out of the media circus and decline it.
Of course if the Dems win the election the incentive to stall fades considerably.
Abe Fortas resigned May 15, 1969 and Harry Blackmun wasn't confirmed until May 12, 1970 (362 days) after the failed nominations of Haynsworth and Carswell. Likewise, Lewis Powell died June 26, 1987 but Anthony Kennedy wasn't confirmed until February 3, 1988 (222 days) after the failed nominations of Robert Bork and Douglas Ginsburg.
There may be other similar situations but those are the ones that came to mind.
Perhaps it would have better been described as 'The longest single confirmation process in history'. In terms of the whole replacement process, where it included candidates that were rejected, there have been times over 125 days ( as you mentioned ).
Well the simplest game theory is (100% chance to be nominated now but near 0% chance to be confirmed) vs (??% chance to be nominated later but 90%+ chance to be confirmed) which seems fairly straightforward. Given current outlook for POTUS election I would decline in their shoes. An older nominee or one that expected 8+ years of GOP presidents might reasonably say this is their only chance and take it though.
I guess an interesting question is whether being nominated now and not approved or stonewalled until withdrawn disqualifies you from being nominated again. I think the default answer is 'yes' (disqualified) although various circumstances could allow it to happen.
This seems like very unreasonable estimate. Being election season, the Republicans will be sensitive to public opinion and stalling for 9+ months could cement the perception of being obstructionists. If Obama nominates a somewhat moderate candidate, they may decide to live with it.
They will likely also have pro forma sessions to deny a recess appointment as well [1].
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NLRB_v._Noel_Canning
One option Obama would have that might fill the seat before his term is up is to go back to providing a real list of a number of candidates instead of the "list of one". The chance of this happening is near zero of course; I guess he'll nominate someone a bit closer to the center and let them be stonewalled, something which may help the democrats in the election.
I imagine a lot of good candidates, knowing the nomination is destined for limbo, might opt out of the media circus and decline it.
Of course if the Dems win the election the incentive to stall fades considerably.