There are two principles at work here. First is Lord Acton's rule: "things that can't go on forever, don't." The second is Keynes: "the market can stay irrational a lot longer than you can stay solvent."
Everyone knows that this has to end -- not just in doom media but everywhere -- but all smart traders know that being early is the exact same thing as being wrong.
You cannot time whats coming, and unless you're running money for somebody else, you don't have to. The only thing you can do is diversify. I know that this is standard advice and it's not nearly as sexy as betting on The Big One, but having a healthily diversified portfolio is literally the only way to stay sane.
If you just have to buy catastrophe insurance, then treat it like what it is: a small hedge against a long tail eventuality. That means don't bet your lifestyle on it.
For me, the most powerful lesson from the GFC is that /everyone/, without exception, is net long The System, and when you bet against The System you bet against the combined best efforts of the most advanced civilization that this planet has ever produced. That is stupid, so don't do it.
The problem is that you can't properly diversify anymore, I went looking for things that weren't correlated. Heck during all the fed/government meddling things that should have been negatively correlated were moving together. That is when I concluded the whole thing was rigged, and it was better to go with the herd than get run over by it. In my own way I bet against the housing boom of the early/mid 2000's too. I didn't really lose any money, but what I learned is that I should have just went out and purchased the largest house I couldn't afford, because the government made it clear that they would do anything to prop up housing/banks/etc. We will never see a _REAL_ price crash in housing because as soon as the markets start to dip a few percent the 2% loans, tax breaks, and bailouts for banks holding empty real-estate they cant sell because doing so will cause the prices to drop further.
Everyone knows that this has to end -- not just in doom media but everywhere -- but all smart traders know that being early is the exact same thing as being wrong.
You cannot time whats coming, and unless you're running money for somebody else, you don't have to. The only thing you can do is diversify. I know that this is standard advice and it's not nearly as sexy as betting on The Big One, but having a healthily diversified portfolio is literally the only way to stay sane.
If you just have to buy catastrophe insurance, then treat it like what it is: a small hedge against a long tail eventuality. That means don't bet your lifestyle on it.
For me, the most powerful lesson from the GFC is that /everyone/, without exception, is net long The System, and when you bet against The System you bet against the combined best efforts of the most advanced civilization that this planet has ever produced. That is stupid, so don't do it.