SMIC is down to 28nm now[1]. I agree this isn't competitive yet, but they are working on 14nm[2] with some reasonably credible partners (including Qualcomm), scheduled to be delivered by 2020.
That would close the gap to Intel/Samsung/TSMC to one generation.
It will be interesting. I'd call that about one and a half generations, if 10nm ships in 2017 like Intel says. Of course, it is anyone's guess whether SMIC will ship 14nm on time, or whether Intel will ship 10nm on time.
That would close the gap to Intel/Samsung/TSMC to one generation.
[1] http://www.smics.com/eng/press/press_releases_details.php?id...
[2] http://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?doc_id=1326948