> So far I've seen him put a rocket in orbit and land it again.* So excuse me if I tamper my enthusiasm.

I think you and Musk probably have pretty similar views on his chances for success. He mentions that this is precisely why he likes the name "Heart of Gold" for the first one of these ships he sends to Mars: It is extremely improbable and the Heart of Gold ran on an improbability drive.

edit: typo