Your comments are pretty fair and your feelings on what your family went through in '60s Taiwan I take as genuine.
However, it was not only hard work that bootstrapped Taiwan out of poverty. Some part of Taiwan's current comfort is due to moving its most extreme labor and environmental problems to other Asian countries, namely China. So now China and a few others are at the bottom of the supply chain...who do they pass the buck to to lift themselves out of these conditions?
No, I am not saying that. That was an assumption built into the question to which I was replying. Economic growth results in everyone being less exploited over time, and free trade results in people making the trade-offs to gain utility most meaningful in their own local circumstances.
I'm not picking on Taiwan when I say that some aspects of their fortunes are based on passing the buck to the next developing nation. As you point out, this is the well worn path of economic development. I don't ascribe moral value to this or any economic model. This path assumes an inexhaustible supply of developing nations. In the economic models you refer, which nation(s) absorb China's workload? If there is no society left to offload to, the demand side must be reconciled (this now includes China domestic consumption). I don't see the U.S. or China taking this reconciliation well.
Industrial robots are extensively used in the Western world in industrial production. However they are rather expensive and are only worth installing for tasks that don't require any human brain activity, can be done 24/7 (as robots don't require sleep it's more economical to run them 24/7) and not change too often so regular reprogramming is not required.
Also, they're not exactly popular amongst manual labourers as a robot takes away the job of at least 2-3 people and never goes on strike.
1) "they are rather expensive" - They are getting cheaper
2) "for tasks that don't require any human brain activity" - Does taking a rubber gel cap from one place and sticking into the bottom of a mouse assembly really require brain activity? That is what the star factory worker in this article was doing.
3) "they're not exactly popular amongst manual labourers" - If the point of robots is to get rid of manual laborers, then does it really matter when they are upset? Also, remember, there are no unions in China (so this article claims), so the likelihood of a strike is very minor.
you guys are thinking of multi-jointed arms. Simplify! Just make it so that all the things line up within some tolerance as they roll down the line and you're golden.
Also, removing manual labor jobs means that there is an available labor pool for something more productive that the robots CAN'T do. Broken glass fallacy anyone?
They are getting cheaper relative to American workers, not 3rd world workers. I did an automation project last fall, the reason was the risk of the current workers sueing over carpal tunnel syndrome. That was more of a driving factor than the cost of salaries (the robot will be paid off in about 5 years, but still, defending 1 suit is more expensive than a robot). The workers in the US cost about 40k, the workers in the article cost 1.5k. The workers in the article have no hope to sue for anything related to repetitive strain injuries. I doubt robots will be taking over chinese factories for a LONG time except where precision beyond human skill is required.
Right - the point being that in the West (and even more so, Japan), eventually the population gets rich enough that it's cheaper to run robots than to just hire bottom-level wage earners.
I include Vietnam in the current status of China. Robots would be cool. Although I have a high degree of respect for people that can make things in factories...it would be a shame to lose this skill set to robots.
Keep in mind that China is already in competition with places like Vietnam. China puts its own provinces in competition with each other in much the same way that states and municipalities in the U.S. compete for a new car factory, data, or distribution center. If China seriously ratchets up its labor protections, buyers will move elsewhere...to an extent...China still outguns everyone on population.
"Although I have a high degree of respect for people that can make things in factories...it would be a shame to lose this skill set to robots."
Broadly speaking, "making things in factories" is not a skill. "Being able to set up efficient factory lines" is, but having robots instead of humans is just another variable in a long list of variables.
I say "broadly speaking" because I'm sure there are exceptions, but I am also sure they are exceptions.
However, it was not only hard work that bootstrapped Taiwan out of poverty. Some part of Taiwan's current comfort is due to moving its most extreme labor and environmental problems to other Asian countries, namely China. So now China and a few others are at the bottom of the supply chain...who do they pass the buck to to lift themselves out of these conditions?