Brief research suggests there might be a few tens of thousands of new jobs if the industry massively expands using the average level of automation of existing plant (of course the expansion will use higher levels of automation).
I guess from many perspectives that is a lot of jobs, but it isn't that many jobs.
It's enough to help tens of thousands of families and revitalize their communities (they'll be spending most of their earnings somewhere). In Appalachia that could make a huge impact on quality of life.
For what it's worth, I grew up in an Appalachian coal town. Coal development will have minimal impact on quality of life. The future for them is bleak, regardless of a Trump or Clinton presidency.
1) Coal was already in decline in the 90s. This isn't a government problem. This is a supply & demand problem. The demand for coal has declined.
2) Automation has drastically reduced the number of miners needed to actually operate a single mine. The # of jobs needed simply will not materialize.
3) Coal is losing the competition to alternative energy sources. (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-06/wind-and-s... )
4) China has been operating at excess production capacity already (http://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-coal-plant-binge-deepens-... )
This is a problem of a group of people failing to come to terms with the harsh realities of a capitalistic system. While their local and national leaders (I'm looking at you, McConnell) continually tell them that coal can be 'brought back'. It can't. Many of the same leaders know the truth, but to lie to the people is politically advantageous for them.
Four years from now Appalachian coal towns will be in worse shape, and even more pissed off. They need leaders that actually respect them to tell them the truth.
I'm from Kentucky as well. An earmark by Mitch McConnell secured funding for my first job out of university (WKU). He did good work for us in Bowling Green at least.
That said, I don't have any illusion that the future isn't bleak in coal country. My extended family has become substantially poorer over the last two decades -- from middle class to poverty. Still, we're working with what we've got. Every job created changes a life. At the very least it can be a bridge toward more opportunity -- that McConnell funded job was for me.
Honestly, I have no doubt that McConnell is a good and reasonable person. I do feel lots of frustration with him and the area, that can make me a tad irrational. I do recognize the difficult situation he is in. To tell the truth to the people could very well cost him his seat. Perhaps his hope is to keep appeasing until he can bring some other industry to the area. Unfortunately, given the harsh reality of poor infrastructure and poor education....I don't think he can do even that. As far as Eastern Ky is concerned, I would advise everyone to leave.
Our culture is unique. Mass relocation will probably destroy it. My own dream is to invest some of my earnings back home to prevent that from happening.
Our people will probably never become well off, but I still hold out hope that we might be able to get by without deracinating.
For how long can coal be the future and at what cost? The price drop of coal may result in other job losses as investment in sustainable systems drops. Additionally, the waste generated in the form of fly ash contains radioactive and carcinogenic materials. Disposal is worse than for nuclear system due to the large volume of material generated and inadequate regulations.
I was trying to address that with my second paragraph.
The question I think is more important is not whether jobs will be good for Appalachia though (obviously they will do some direct good), it is whether the good that comes out of those jobs is at all in proportion with the harm from expanding our use of coal. It likely is not, the harm will be much greater.
I have the same question for you as I have for jacobolus; even if that's the reality, I can still see a political angle to pushing a coal investment, since it was historically a large employer.
I guess from many perspectives that is a lot of jobs, but it isn't that many jobs.