You might not have written it in exactly those words, but the corollary of your observation still holds.

Saying that an infinite hierarchy of functions is unlikely is saying that we probably don't live in a world governed by an infinite hierarchy of functions. But that's all it says, and as I pointed out, we have good a priori reasons for believing this conclusion, without having to ontologically commit ourselves to accepting it as necessarily true.

So I disagree, it's still not conflating "things that are likely" with "things that are".