I think this unfortunately contradicts player expectations most of the times. Even for non-gaming "random" things, people tend to see patterns where there aren't any, and "fairly close to true" random functions feel like they're being modified even when they aren't.

I'm briefly recalling some lectures during University that we're hardwired to find patterns, even when there aren't any, and we make some pretty wild conclusions about the patterns we find this way. I've seen otherwise fairly reasonable players during DnD tell me it's time to "switch to the late night dice" because the current D20 hits a bad luck streak after awhile, and they adamantly adhere to this.

With games it's the same way. League of Legends tweaked it's crit chance algorithm to be a little less random because it could be so wildly swingy and players didn't like it - crit reliant champions would either feel amazing as they melted, or they'd feel useless after a series of successive non-crit attacks. The Dodge mechanic was removed almost entirely since a few select champs could have amazing fights where they got lucky and got 3+ dodges in a row even at relatively low dodge percentages.

It sucks to be the type of person that does understand probability in a reasonable way, but the evidence in games shows that just isn't how the grand majority of players operate.

I see many echoes of the sentiment that players don't understand probability in this thread, but I think it's worth considering that maybe also a compromise between randomness and determinism in games is more fun than either alone.

Have you ever heard people hating on you in a forum for adding randomness to a multiplayer game. And its not even limited to one side- both sides will hate on you. One side, because you "rigged" the game, the other because they can not be sure, whether there victory is down to being lucky. They dont want randomness- they want that sweet Adrenalin shot, when things go wrong and you barely succeed with your head on your shoulders on third try.

And yet I bet they're more addicted or fueled in their rage. The most vile gaming communities are also huge. It may not be a causal link, but I wouldn't be surprised.

I'm fairly certain Battle for Wesnoth does this and it just made the game frustrating for me when very low probability events occurred. Probability doesn't scale mentally that way. I mean, I have a degree in Mathematics, and I know what this means. I still didn't like it happening.

Battle of Wesnoth probabilities are often frustating, yeah, but at least it teaches a lesson of independent random events and proper perception of probabilities.