Hacker Newsnew | past | comments | ask | show | jobs | submitlogin

> Game-theory software can even help locate a terrorist's hideout [... by estimating] on a 100-point scale the importance a wanted man attaches to his likes (fishing, say) and priorities (remaining hidden or [...] recruiting suicide-bombers). Such factors determine where and how terrorists decide to live. Game-theory software played an important role in finding Osama bin Laden's hideout in Abbottabad, Pakistan, says Mr Owen

After a crescendo of unsubstantiated claims, the article finally reaches a well-known case. The claims here seem laughable. First, by all accounts, bin Laden was pretty stationary in his compound and any hot-air model of his psychology regarding fishing vs. recruiting would have been irrelevant. Second, the US government at the time would have been ecstatic to push a story about game theory finding bin Laden - it would have protected sources on the ground, the guy doing a fake vaccination campaign etc.

Regrettably, the article's agenda seems to be no more than pushing a gaggle of unsubstantiated claims that would help consultants with their magical game-theory software make money off gullible companies / governments.



> that would help consultants with their magical game-theory software make money off gullible companies / governments

Yep. Game theory is also a great complex for generating academic papers, think tank analyses, etc.

In reality the field seems barely predictive under the best of circumstances.


Hi @arcanus, sorry approaching him here. I am an author of a paper you commented on a past thread here (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11977747), and we would like to share your feedback. Would you please contact me at igorsteinmacher [] gmail?

Best




Guidelines | FAQ | Lists | API | Security | Legal | Apply to YC | Contact

Search: