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For years I've used (and I'm most likely not the first to have coined this) the "Gravity Well of Fail" to describe situations that become increasingly more perilous due to badly chosen decision paths as time passes. I didn't actually know about the term "Incident Pit", or perhaps only vaguely remember this or a similar term from a couple of pals who are scuba divers.


It seems like "pot committed" (the poker term) is in the same vein.


"Pot committed" has a subtly different meaning. A player who is pot committed hasn't necessarily made a mistake and isn't necessarily in a bad situation; the pot has just grown so large relative to their stack that it's worth calling even with a very weak hand. If the pot is offering you 15/1 and you think your opponent has a 10% probability of bluffing, it's worth calling with ace high. It's a slightly tricky concept to apply, because a lot of players who think they're pot committed are just falling prey to the sunk cost fallacy.

Many startup founders are effectively pot committed. The potential reward of an acquisition is very high; the cost of staying in business is just the opportunity cost of your time. Running the company until either bankruptcy or acquisition often has a higher expected value than quitting to do something else, even if the situation looks dire.




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