Oroville is both north and west of where you are. Significant rain shadowing occurs east of the Sierra. and I think the "5000ft high" watershed number for Oroville may be low.

Yep all true. There's probably not any snow below even _6,000 or 7,000ft_ in the Sierras right now because the last storm, which was warm/rainy, melted it. This is another reason why the next storm won't put as much water into the reservoir.