FWIW, predictions in my neck of the woods (the SF peninsula) are uncannily accurate. Rain is usually predicted with high reliability a week in advance, and we can generally rely on the hour-by-hour predictions a day or two ahead. I realize that our location is particularly easy to predict because of how our weather is dominated by the Pacific ocean, but you've got to take your wins where you can find them.
Most of what you said is the opposite of what the science shows. SF is particularly hard to forecast because its weather is dominated by the Pacific Ocean (in winter at least). In other places we get reasonably reliable 10 day forecasts, but because initial data (observations) are sparse over the ocean, we have less confidence in the forecast here, long range forecasts are less likely to verify. Satellites do help, but it's not like there's a vast network of Doppler radar buoys out there y'know? Anyway, we've gotten good at this despite the ocean, not because of it.
We've gotten a lot better on timing with better satellite data. But so far as precip amounts, and type? Let's just say it is not the exact science we want it to be.
FWIW, I've lived all over the world, and now the bay area. And I am consistently impressed with how good the weather predictions are for the area. So thank you for the hard work. I know I'm impressed.
