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These have been coming out for a while now. Has anyone ever gone back and saw how previous predictions held up?


Here are the slides from 2011:

https://www.slideshare.net/kleinerperkins/kpcb-internet-tren...

I just went through them, the trouble is that most of the trends are so vague (e.g. "Advertising - Lookin' Good") that you can't really grade them on their predictive accuracy. It's not even clear to me whether she's calling out economic drivers (since she's an investor) or if she's just picking 10 trends at random cross sections. I don't know what her intent is with these, but I judged them on the rubric that "if her 2011 report was perfect, her 2017 report would be an exact copy with updated numbers", admittedly not knowing if that was her rubric.

She does consistently mention tech globalization (mostly regarding China/India) and the US's increasingly large debt, the economic trends seem pretty consistently and accurate. But she misses out on some huge industry trends like the critical role that data plays today or the overtaking of traditional industries over the last ten years via "software eating the world" (even up to 2014).* She's also consistent and mostly correct about mobile being a dominant trend (up until now), but everything else like "Re-imagining Messaging" and "Content Creation - Changed Forever" sounds like it was just the flavor of the year.

* http://www.kpcb.com/blog/2014-internet-trends


Well they're not really predictions so much as a phenomenal data set tracking the industry and consumer behavior in relevant markets. Draw your own hypotheses / conclusions :P


First, as others have said, these reports are more about the recent past than the future. It is tempting to extrapolate though.

I'd say many of the things she points out are valid for big cities and tech centers, but less so elsewhere. For example, restaurants built around delivery is a big deal around NYC, but not such a big deal in Albany or Scranton.

What do you think of the current report?


If I recall correctly she was one of the analysts pumping the internet stocks during the dotcom boom and bust. IIRC (and I might not) she was also advising select clients to sell in the early stages of the bust as she publicly kept issuing strong buy recommendations on the same stocks for general audience. Thus I tend to view her analysis with a lot of salt.

Here is a first non-paywall link from 2001 on Mary Meeker and dotcoms. Make your own conclusions.

http://archive.fortune.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive...


"Among the stocks she has never downgraded are Priceline, Amazon, Yahoo, and FreeMarkets--all of which have declined between 85% and 97% from their peak."

Maybe she knew what she was doing?


Amazon is still up almost 10x from its peak!




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