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They probably used a simple model (and experience) to determine the needed amount. But the model was wrong because, well, it encountered the real world. So they'll adjust in the future. Probably they could have analyzed the heck out of it for years, and gotten it right, but then that would take years and cost buckets.


This reminds me of a phrase: “All models are wrong; Some models are useful”. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/All_models_are_wrong


Or to quote a Prussian general:

"No plan of operations extends with any certainty beyond the first contact with the main hostile force."




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