"Conspiracy theory" was itself ... if you believe the conspiracy theory ... promoted as a disparaging term by the C.I.A., based on CIA Document 1035-960:
As for the VMS -> WNT shift, I'd considered mentioning it above.
I'm something of a fan of the multiple-explanations model. There are connections which may have multiple explanations. The IBM->HAL ties are too obviously deliberate in the film to be simple coincidence -- one does not project the letters "IBM" by accident, and certainly not in such a pivotal scene. I've also been part of far too many group / organisational discussions in which claims at deniability were made, clearly without substance.
As for the ability for some within a project to be working toward goals unknown to others, even at large scale, I'm reminded of the Glomar Explorer mission in which a large, secondary, scientific mission was presented as cover and for which many members of that cover mission didn't learn the truth of the primary objective until the story broke in newspapers.
https://projectunspeakable.com/conspiracy-theory-invention-o...
Though that theory has ... its own critics:
https://www.csicop.org/specialarticles/show/nope_it_was_alwa...
Usage of the phrase began rising sharply in the 1950s:
https://books.google.com/ngrams/graph?content=conspiracy+the...
As for the VMS -> WNT shift, I'd considered mentioning it above.
I'm something of a fan of the multiple-explanations model. There are connections which may have multiple explanations. The IBM->HAL ties are too obviously deliberate in the film to be simple coincidence -- one does not project the letters "IBM" by accident, and certainly not in such a pivotal scene. I've also been part of far too many group / organisational discussions in which claims at deniability were made, clearly without substance.
As for the ability for some within a project to be working toward goals unknown to others, even at large scale, I'm reminded of the Glomar Explorer mission in which a large, secondary, scientific mission was presented as cover and for which many members of that cover mission didn't learn the truth of the primary objective until the story broke in newspapers.