Netflix definitely found greenfield with their business model, however the next few years will be decided by who can create the best original content. Netflix has spent billions on content: signing popular writers / show runners to long term contracts and picking up movies in the indie scene for distribution. However I still don't think they've had a massive hit, nothing Netflix has made can touch Game of Thrones or the Sopranos for cultural impact, and critically even Amazon Studios has had an Oscar nominee (although I think Beasts of No Nation was robbed for not getting a best actor nom).
Disney is rolling out their own streaming service and I'd bet that eventually they will roll ESPN+ into the deal and maybe even ESPN entirely itself. I think once sports gets into the mix the entire streaming domain will radically change.
nothing Netflix has made can touch Game of Thrones or the Sopranos for cultural impact
I think House of Cards was at least in the same ballpark as GoT and Sopranos. I think there is something to be said for brand affiliation as well, HBO was already considered a great source of TV while Netflix was only starting to get a fraction of that credibility. I could easily imagine an alternate reality where we would say:
nothing Netflix has made can touch Game of Thrones or House of Cards for cultural impact
with the implication being The Sopranos being a Netflix property.
As with homeruns, HBO has more than its share of (sometimes critically acclaimed) base runs (Veep, Boardwalk Empire, Entourage, Curb Your Enthusiasm, etc...) as is does strikeouts (Vinyl).
I don't think House of Cards comes close really, especially now that Spacey is out. Game of Thrones is a movement: cosplay, crazy fan forums, ultra wide appeal, the filming location of King's Landing in Croatia is constantly flooded by tourists because of GoT. House of Cards is a solid show, especially season 1, but I'd say GoT is the biggest show in the world culturally right now.
Good point regarding HBO's brand and their "good" shows; and I think it helps to illustrate my point: Netflix has a lot of good shows, maybe even some great ones, what I think they need, and what I think the other streaming providers will need is really big generational hits that come out every five years or so.
I don't think House of Cards comes close really, especially now that Spacey is out. Game of Thrones is a movement: cosplay, crazy fan forums, ultra wide appeal, the filming location of King's Landing in Croatia is constantly flooded by tourists because of GoT. House of Cards is a solid show, especially season 1, but I'd say GoT is the biggest show in the world culturally right now.
Both good points, too bad that HoC looks to be Spacey's swan song (and deservedly so).
Game of Thrones was already popular before HBO touched it however. Not to the degree that it is now, but it was one of the most talked about books since Harry Potter.
The worst thing is I have not found the next Game of Thrones/Harry Potter/Lord of the Rings. Lots of good books have come out in the past few years, but nothing has had the same impact yet.
The upcoming Amazon production of the Tolkien series is an obvious attempt to ride the GoT coattails. I'm putting the coattail credit to GoT rather than the Jackson trilogy.
Yeah, I think some of the factors that determine if a show is a massive hit is outside of the direct control of the producer. I think Netflix will get some home runs if they continue to invest in them, and keep giving directors creative freedom. Stranger Things was a really popular tv series.
And Netflix has got options for critically acclaimed tv series that traditional networks can't fully utilize. They can and do import foreign tv shows to an American audience without worrying much about taking airtime away from other shows.
Do they need a massive hit though? I for one appreciate the diversity that is available on Netflix. Surely they can match people's tastes better this way.
Still I'm rooting for the Witcher to be a big hit.
I'd say no, because they aren't dependent on advertising. Taking ads introduces a kind of competitiveness within the seller's financial heads. It's an irreversible state change that works for some companies, but -- and I'm no econ -- Netflix might be banking on not needing to do that for as long as they can. We see them dancing with the fire in their menu behavior and intercalary promos[1], so we'll see.
I think so, as mentioned Netflix has definitely changed the game but when it comes to awards success and cultural impact I think they've been lacking. Netflix doesn't release viewing numbers so it's hard to tell but traditionally every big network provider has had a generational hit now and then (Grey's Anatomy, Big Bang Theory, Family Guy, etc.). As other streaming services catch up (and I think they will) services will need to differentiate with original content that you just can't miss.
I kind of wonder if Netflix's decision to release a show a season at a time changes cultural success. All of those shows were weekly, so they stuck around in your head and in general conversation. Netflix you can binge watch, so after a month or two you probably aren't watching it anymore.
I think there's 2 problems with your problems. Firstly, that Netflix even needs to have 1 big hit when they have quantity over quality of shows, which is honestly far far more important, at least in my opinion, because I buy the service to have a huge variety. I'm never going to pay for one show. The second thing is that you assume people are going to choose Disney over Netflix when they can reasonably have both ($12 a month is pennies). Netflix have far too many loyal customers on their hands, thanks to their (frankly) genius profile-sharing system. The streaming game will change over the next decade, but not in a way random people can seriously predict, and definitely not in a way that will kill Netflix. Think of it in terms of all the shitty streaming services that are only alive because of one show... If they can stay alive, it's reasonable to expect Netflix to stay alive even without a hit show.
Important to also consider markets outside W. EU and the US where $12 a month might not be pennies after those markets are totally saturated and Netflix and others look to continue boosting subscriber counts
Disney is rolling out their own streaming service and I'd bet that eventually they will roll ESPN+ into the deal and maybe even ESPN entirely itself. I think once sports gets into the mix the entire streaming domain will radically change.