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I don't think that kind of avalanche forecast can be applied to Himalayas. Normally, one has to dig ~6ft hole and observe the layers of snow on a slope and deduce its stability. So you have a bunch of guys going out in the morning, digging holes at various places and making an estimated map of avalanche danger. Often they place explosives to start a small avalanche at exposed locations, reducing a chance of a big one. Now in Himalayas you don't have a chance to do this as the main problem are avalanches coming at high speed from far away where nobody climbs; there you likely rely on stats and estimates from known weather patterns and avalanche frequency. However, any time a serac can get loose, kicking off a massive avalanche, and world's best climbers are out of luck. In super remote areas with a lot of snowfall like Kanchenjunga, you are on your own and completely depend on luck.

One sign of a super dangerous avalanche terrain is hearing sounds a few ft underneath when one is walking. That's a sign that there are (at least) two distinct layers of snow with different consistency and the sound comes from the break between them; likely a huge avalanche layer is about to run down the valley. When you hear something like that, don't laugh that it's funny to hear deep sounds, but run for your life towards safer terrain.



I totally agree with you, it's great to have federal funding for public advisories stateside. I also agree that big icefall triggered avalanches like you describe are a different sort than what weekend warriors like me encounter in the US, where the vast majority of dangerous slides are triggered by humans.

My broader point, intended more for those interested in if avalanche forecasting is even possible than the Kanchenjunga set, is that there are methods for assessing conditions and evaluating risk using both observations in the field and tracking conditions over time - relying on stats, estimates, and deep noises as you note.




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