India, China, Eastern Europe, Latin America... take your pick.
When I go shopping for a phone this year, I'll be comparing the iPhone5 with the latest dual-core 4+" 1280x760 Android monstrosity, then drop 600+ on either. When the newly minted middle class in those countries goes shopping for a phone this year, they'll look at a reasonable 3.5" 480x320 Android for $150-200, compare it with some aging Nokia dinosaur and make their pick. The iPhone is not going to be figuring into their thoughts very much.
Anyway, you asked me 'now do you understand the point of the article'.
I think I already did, thanks, and as far as I can tell, Android being at a particularly advantage overseas vs. iOS is neither the point of FW's post or the article he linked to. In fact, all he said is '. And many of these devices will be running Android, not iOS'. As far as I can tell, HN has seemed to turn this into "Android will be devastating iOS because people in Kiribati can't afford an iPhone!!". Okay, but that isn't what either article was asserting.
Well, if you follow the link in Fred Wilson's blog post, the title is "2011 will be the year Android explodes". FW is merely agreeing with that original point.
I think Fred's point was that it's an entirely new market opening up. As you say, a middle-class value-conscious market. It will be a huge market, so businesses need to get out in front of it. But replicatorblog's point (as I understand it) is that iOS will still own the high-end of that market, and that segment is worth more $$$ than its number's suggest. If you're in control of the high-end, you can exert undue influence on consumer mind-share and developers. That matters for something.
Anyway, IMO this is not an iOS-vs-Android issue. New markets are going to open up, Android will be there. iOS will still be a cash-cow. Win-win, everybody celebrate (except Microsoft)
When I go shopping for a phone this year, I'll be comparing the iPhone5 with the latest dual-core 4+" 1280x760 Android monstrosity, then drop 600+ on either. When the newly minted middle class in those countries goes shopping for a phone this year, they'll look at a reasonable 3.5" 480x320 Android for $150-200, compare it with some aging Nokia dinosaur and make their pick. The iPhone is not going to be figuring into their thoughts very much.