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> Recommending something you bought before is probably a much better bet

Not if it's something I only buy once a year, for example. That's where "learning" part should come in. You don't need any learning to just parrot me back my inputs.

> Amazon wouldn't deploy these systems if they didn't move the needle.

I don't know about Amazon, but I've recently read on HN some articles strongly suggesting almost nobody is properly measuring the impact of ads, let alone the impact of "targeting". In most cases, people more or less just stuff money into ads budgets, because that's what you do, and they get customers - because people still need to buy things, regardless of any targeting - but the casual link between the former and the latter is not really very well established.



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