Politicians right now are in, "it doesn't matter if we do the right thing, it ma...

petra · on April 13, 2020

We're starting to see medical treatments, antibody testing, tracking, large scale respirator manufacturing, etc...

Those building blocks will be needed if we want a plan that isn't too painful.

balls187 · on April 13, 2020

> Right now, 0.1% of the US has had Covid-19. For heard immunity we need that number to be at least 500 times larger.

Would deaths scale linearly with a 500x increase?

How about the impact on our medical system, would that scale linearly with a 500x increase?

nostromo · on April 13, 2020

And how will our lives look if we continue this quarantine for a decade -- which at our current level of infection (which has leveled off) is the minimum time it would take to gain heard immunity?

balls187 · on April 13, 2020

> And how will our lives look if we continue this quarantine for a decade

Probably look at Iraq and Afghanistan has dealt with post 9/11.

Speaking strictly in terms of the US, we'd be able to weather a 10-year lockdown. America is rich in natural resources, and has a large agricultural base.

Our government can handle the basics:

Drinking water

Food

Shelter

The rest would be economic shifts, such as reduction in costs of living to account for a new economy that has shifted away from the ability to get together.

I would speculate we're better off with the entirety of the economy being in shambles, than we would be by having rather high mortality rates, and overwhelming our health services.

Let me post another question:

What if you did not need to work to have your any of needs met?

SpicyLemonZest · on April 13, 2020

I have socialization needs which shelter-in-place orders forbid me from meeting.

balls187 · on April 13, 2020

The current laws would need to be adapted to allow for some socialization.

Processes and procedures would need to be put in place to ensure safety.

Society would need to adapt to meet those needs.

SpicyLemonZest · on April 13, 2020

I'm not sure that society can in fact adapt to such strict restrictions. People in Afghanistan didn't take the decade off from socializing, even though there was a significant risk of getting killed.

Invictus0 · on April 13, 2020

Herd immunity is not the only way out; there is a lot of room between a decade and the time to get a vaccine to market.

usaar333 · on April 13, 2020

> Right now, 0.1% of the US has had Covid-19

By any reasonable estimate, it's over 1%. Highly infected areas like NYC likely exceed 10%

> So, what's the plan here?

It's not feasable to get herd immunity in a world as open as 3 months ago. The hospitalization rate (and duration) is too high -> it would take longer than the optimistic time for vaccine development.

Electronic contact tracing, heavy testing, traveler quarantines, mass gathering restrictions. It's not going to get contained, but you can have a world where isolated bursts effectively get squashed.