I know it's in Taiwan, and if this escalates, the supply chain will get cut.
When it comes to 'invasion', there's no chance of defending Taiwan unfortunately. No one has the stomach for that. It's easily one step away from a nuclear war. You think coronavirus is bad...
I read up a bit into this a few year ago and China invading Taiwan is actually far harder than you'd think. There are only a few easily fortified areas that can handle an amphibious assault, and either way PLA has limited amphibious assault capability and limited modern warfighting experience (PLA is actually suprisingly corrupt and ineffective).
Of course, during a war military planners expect massive cyber attacks against Taiwan, and CCP sympathizers within Taiwan committing sabotage. Military planners also expect NATO forces to use missile barrages against targets on the mainland of China (which would clearly cause escalation).
The threat of nuclear war goes both ways: the impact of nuclear on discouraging the defence of Taiwan is equally applicable on discouraging the invasion of Taiwan.
No one is having a nuclear war over Taiwan. It's important, but not that important.
If China invaded Taiwan, the US would not defend it. Super powers don't go to war. They have wars through proxy countries. If super powers did go to war, it would be nuclear war, and it would be bad.
For what it's worth, the invasion of Taiwan is considered by military planners to be an important flash point for World War 3. It would be bloody, and very likely nuclear, and pull in nearby nations like Japan, and will likely end with hundreds of millions (possibly billions) dead.
Not by USA or other allies. However, the Taiwan military could make it painful for the mainlanders. Or, the right bribes to the right officers might grease the skids.
However, this is thinking like American leadership: too short-term. What happens the day after China controls Taiwan? Do all Taiwanese meekly submit to their bullshit? Or do they become an extreme version of Hong Kong? It's mostly Han in Taiwan, so the depravities seen in Xinjiang and Tibet couldn't be instituted there without jeopardizing the legitimacy of the entire state. As long as Chinese leadership is fairly secure in their positions, they won't invade Taiwan.
Hong Kong's population is less than a third of that. Somehow they've given Beijing a bloody nose for nearly a year now. That's not surprising, because mainland China's population is irrelevant to this question. What are they going to do? Give a bunch of farmers hukou to Kowloon and Taipei? ...actually, that's a fun idea, but it's unlikely to decrease public unrest.
> if China invaded Taiwan it's hard to see the US not getting involved.
It's pretty much impossible to see the US getting involved.
The UN doesn't recognize Taiwan as an independent country, so China would just be exercising their authority over a chinese company, just like they do with Huawei, Lenovo, and many others.
NATO couldn't help either, because the US is not being militarily attacked by this. And well, the US has severed both their military ties with NATO, as well as their political ties with all countries in NATO (Paris agreement, Iran nuclear deal, tarifs, empty embassies, in bed with North Korea...). Also, many NATO countries are in bed with China economically, building the new Silk Road...
So... if China were to grab TSMC, and the US would try any kind of military action, who would support the US ? Europe, Russia, South Korea, Japan, South America, the Middle east, Australia, ... they would all stand by China. The US has been screwing them over the last 4 years, while China has been giving them money for them to return them the favor in a time like this.
Or do you imagine Trump going throughout the world kissing others asses to get their support?
Yeah, no. If Trump was "brave" enough to take military action, it would be game over before it even starts: world-wide embargo against the US, all US international companies assets frozen, the S&P500 would hit zero in a matter of days, inflation would explode, the troops wouldn't be getting paid, etc. The largest military force in the world would crumble in a week before even taking the first shot.
Well the United States illegally invaded Iraq in 2003 without UN approval (with the pretense that Saddam Hussein was developing weapons of mass destruction, which turned out to be false), and managed to get the United Kingdom, Spain, Australia and Poland along for the illegal ride.
Taiwan has a vibrant democracy and is highly regarded internationally. If China invades Taiwan, the resulting coalition will look more like the 2001 invasion of Afganistan in Operation Enduring Freedom [1], with United States and other NATO members attacking military assets on China's mainland to neutralize the invasion.
The risk of even a small scale nuclear exchange is huge, and so is the risk it will escalate into a Third World War with billions dead.
Not sure if you realize that 'Operation Enduring Freedom' is regarded to as a joke. A '40 country coalition' to invade two countries with no means of protecting themselves. It was like stepping on an anthill.
I can't comprehend how you wrote this sentence, 'attacking military assets on China's mainland to neutralize the invasion' What galaxy do you live in where you think this would ever happen?
Given the critical nature of semiconductors, if China invaded Taiwan it's hard to see the US not getting involved.
TSMC is Taiwan's largest company.