At this point another AI winter seems impossible. AI has such a strong foothold in functionality like voice recognition or image manipulation that are core to big tech company products, it wouldn't make sense for them to give up on the whole paradigm like what happened in the 80's.
While I don't think we'll have another AI winter for the reasons you point out, I do expect a large contraction in the AI market where a few of the successful companies in AI dominate and you won't see people throwing AI at problems that don't need it anymore.
In the 90s every washing machine had "fuzzy logic", it was the new hyped thing. Of course there are legitimate applications of fuzzy logic, but you don't have to apply it everywhere. It quickly died down once people noticed this fact.
Right now we're in the phase of the hype cycle where clueless managers ask their engineers to apply AI to anything, because they read about the AI revolution everyday and fear being left behind. But some problems have good non-AI solutions where AI won't reap much benefits, while the data collection, the experts, the time to develop, and the necessary restructuring to become an AI company costs a lot.
