TW3. CDPR dropped the ball (though not quite this hard) but pulled through within a year. No Man’s Sky missed that target but still managed to eventually have a (supposedly) decent product. Ask the average gamer how they feel about No Man’s Sky.

Most other big budget case studies either completely failed, were decent within a year, or shipped in a complete state.

Wasn't just TW3, pretty much every Witcher game had issues on release that where fixed over the following time period trough a combination of patching, free DLC and paid DLC, ultimately culminating in the enhanced editions.

In that context CDPR has a very positive track record many people just flat out ignore; I've seen people on Reddit claim the game is an "unfixable mess" and how CDPR will just "cut their losses" by never patching it, it's inane beyond belief.

Yeah, for giant open world games I kinda just expect a year of bugs before it's actually pretty dialed in... Bethesda has done a lot of work to lower expectations in this genre.

This close to par for CDPR, but it clearly is below their par. The bad outcome is that they bit off more than they can chew and CP2077 takes too long to get to a good state or the “good state” is not good. The good outcome is that they make a decent looking product by the end of 2021 and gamers (maybe) forgive CDPR for releasing an unfinished game. There’s a large expectation of goodwill from both sides. Both sides have consistently demonstrated that goodwill, but that goodwill could sour.