There is absolutely no chance of a material shortage being a long term problem, even for the currently problematic cobalt.
No need to mention LFP, or spinel chemistries, which have neither cobalt, nor nickel as such, and will not be impacted by cobalt prices at all.
The problem is entirely the supply chain. 9 out of 10 cells today are made in China from Chinese components, which themselves are produced in China, from ores refined in China. And there are few suppliers, so they hold prices high.
Around 15-10 years ago, a lot of lithium batteries were manufactured literally in garages, with chemicals mixed in household buckets. Today, it's no way possible to outcompete the fully automated line with manual assembly, except probably for the biggest cell sizes.
There are less than 10 companies around the world with fully automated cell lines, and they set the prices, and largely the pace for the entire industry.
No need to mention LFP, or spinel chemistries, which have neither cobalt, nor nickel as such, and will not be impacted by cobalt prices at all.
The problem is entirely the supply chain. 9 out of 10 cells today are made in China from Chinese components, which themselves are produced in China, from ores refined in China. And there are few suppliers, so they hold prices high.
Around 15-10 years ago, a lot of lithium batteries were manufactured literally in garages, with chemicals mixed in household buckets. Today, it's no way possible to outcompete the fully automated line with manual assembly, except probably for the biggest cell sizes.
There are less than 10 companies around the world with fully automated cell lines, and they set the prices, and largely the pace for the entire industry.