>Japan for instance has seen their M2 money supply 3X from 1990 to 2022, while the affordability of a house there hasn't decreased since 1995. This is due to their federal zoning rules which permit housing construction practically everywhere.
I mean I've no doubt that's some sort of a factor, but on the other hand the population of Japan is also almost exactly the same as it was in 1995 whereas the US population has increased by 25% in the same period - I'm not sure I'd so easily rule out demographics as a factor!
All that means is that supply met or exceeded demand, which is the point that I'm making - we are precluding supply from meeting demand via artificial supply constraints.
In their case it was a combination of a declining population and zoning rules. However, the decline AFAIK was concentrated outside urban areas. Tokyo grew from 32.5M to 37.5M between 1990 and 2022 without any increase whatsoever in the real dollar price of housing.
I mean I've no doubt that's some sort of a factor, but on the other hand the population of Japan is also almost exactly the same as it was in 1995 whereas the US population has increased by 25% in the same period - I'm not sure I'd so easily rule out demographics as a factor!