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> It's not unlikely we'll enter a period of hyperinflation soon that breaks all historical records for the US.

I'd say this is pretty unlikely. This is like saying that because the weatherman was wrong and it's 10 degrees colder today than predicted we should expect a new ice age to hit next week.



Reality is in between your two takes, IMO.

There is a limit to the debt-to-GDP ratio before reality takes over. Baked into the assumptions on debt is inherent growth in GDP. It's rare, but there are scenarios where you may see real contraction in GDP and, frankly the present geopolitical and global economic climate is ripe for such events. If that happens, then the US entering some inflationary spiral to service debt isn't totally 100,000 year "ice-age" ridiculous. It's more like ~100 year cold snap.


I agree, but I would be surprised if it is 8% again for the coming year, given job market is still hot, supplies are still short, the war in Ukraine will likely last at least another year, and the government still want to spend a lot of money and is unlikely to raise rates very much more than 0.25% per quarter.




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