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This happens whenever something bad happens to someone else, be it a car accident or a major illness or being the victim of a crime.

People want to think it wouldn’t happen to them, so they go through all the reasons they would have been able to avoid the situation so that they don’t have to fear it happening to them.

People really don’t want to admit to themselves that there are a lot of things outside our control that can happen to us.



That's mostly because people in good circumstances are usually reluctant to attribute much of it to luck.

It's so much more fun to pretend that everything good that's happened to you, you earned and deserved, rather than a lot of it just being random noise that compounded in the fortunate direction.


When taken together, your observation and GP's form a phenomenon called the "fundamental attribution error":

https://online.hbs.edu/blog/post/the-fundamental-attribution...


That's mostly because luck is only one very small component. The years and years of hard work are much more important. Yeah you need to be "lucky" to find a good opportunity - but everyone is lucky in that way, but most people do nothing about their opportunities.


I saw a video explaining where if you attribute just 5% of outcomes to luck, then the people who have the best outcomes are among the luckiest people.

It's hard to define just how much luck would matter in any given situation, but if you consider every aspect of our lives as part of luck, which I think is what people mean when they debate luck vs hard work, then I think it's a lot higher than 5% actually. That is, things like place/time of birth, parents, family, socioeconomic status at birth, schools, friends, teachers, health, timing of things, chance encounters - these things are all mostly outside of your control.

Someone on hacker news might be thinking how they worked hard for years to learn software engineering, spent time networking, practiced interview questions, applied to several places, performed well in the interviews, and landed a lucrative job. And that's all part of hard work and it's often a necessary part of success. It doesn't feel like you lucked into anything. But the lucky part was mostly all the stuff I mentioned before - things that happened at birth, or things that happened because of others' actions. If you're born an affluent white American, for example, your luck meter is highly filled from the start. Then maybe at some point you had a teacher that helped you in a meaningful way, or you met a friend that influenced your decision making. And let's not forget there are people who are just as qualified, who study hard, practice, do all the same things, and they don't get the job. Maybe because the interviewer had a hangover, or maybe it was just someone else got in before them and wowed the interview team and made up their mind before seeing them. That's luck.

I believe this is the video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3LopI4YeC4I&vl=en


So it's not luck being born in the US instead of North Korea?

It's not luck being born without birth defects, being healthy, and still being alive to this day?


Sure, but what % of the world falls into those categories? And do we include every unfertilized egg as another unlucky human?


Maybe “No, but we do count fertilized eggs which fail to bum plant in the walls or whatever”?


North Korea is one of the very few places that you can't move away from, so I grant you that. All other people who can move freely around the world - yes, it was not luck, it was hard work.

Moving into the US - or being born there - really doesn't make you successful, you'll find yourself grinding daily if you want some success. Actually, you may find it's much harder for you there than elsewhere (where you might find less outrageous success, but with much less hard work).

> It's not luck being born without birth defects, being healthy, and still being alive to this day?

Exactly, that's modern medicine - thank scientists, doctors, engineers and insurance bankers for their hard work. Gods and fate have zero part in it.


People don't want to have to care about anyone else.

They are so burdened with looking out for themselves they only see caring about anyone else as just another burden that they shouldn't have to bear, instead of seeing it as an avenue of shared and thus relieved burden.

So, any excuse to make it so they don't have to care about any other misfortune than their own.


Hmm, not certain if I agree with that. It may boil down to defining “care.”

If people did not care, they wouldn’t read and comment, would they? We can observe there is enough attention and salience for this other person’s situation to achieve some level of “care” in other people’s minds. Maybe the caring involved is a more distant and superficial sort? Maybe it is the kind of caring that comes out of avoiding one’s own cares.

I use this thought personally to observe when I care enough to type in a comment, and which of my own cares I am avoiding when I do so.


It is an ambiguous term on it's own.

I didn't provide enough context to illustrate that my point was about selfishness and avoiding feelings of obligation or guilt?

I am not immune myself even though I levelled the charge. I only get through the day by generous application of denial.

If I can't avoid seeing someone hungry, then plan B is figure out a way to conclude that it is within their own power to feed themselves, and so not my problem.

Failing both of those, then I have to deal with it. I either have to share my food with them or I have to consciously decide I'm ok with keeping mine and ignore their misfortune.

Obviously, intellectually, academically, I know that the world is one big continuous stream of unbelievable tragedy, and I can't actually live even one second for myself if I were to try to treat all of that the same way I do when my own partner suffers so much as a headache. So I don't. I pretend everything is fine by arranging things so that mostly everything I see is fine, and when I see something else I mostly rationalize some sway to ignore it. I drive right by that guy standing at the intersection with the sign, etc.

I just at least try to be self aware that I'm doing that and not confuse a sanity/survival strategy, however justified and necessary, for reality.

I'm saying that a lot of people don't seem to do even that last little part.


Is this a fair summary?

I rationalize my choice of inaction when I feel obligation or guilt to take action. I am unable to observe the interior rationalizations of others' inaction.


Humans are social animals. How do you reconcile that?


This is the second comment I've come across today where I read it and immediately think "what an odd comment", and both times it was from your account. I'm curious, now that I am here and experiencing this, what about your day today has tickled the spidey sense. First was the comment about what we look like wearing thongs, another was about 'medicalizing diversity'.

If you don't mind getting analytical, what about today, in your life, is different about today than other days? Just curious. My day has been the same as others, good sleep, waking up easily, tasks in line for the day, no coffee, so I am willing to assume something about your life patterns today is bringing you under my nose.


Not OP, but a lot of people find it very easy to be sociable with successful people (or who they perceive as successful anyway) and will give them preferential treatment.


> People want to think it wouldn’t happen to them

I’ve often wondered why some people can be so harsh towards those who’ve had something unfortunate happen to them. This makes a lot of sense.



I think this is exactly right.




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