Prediction markets are a fantastic concept with a ton of value I think for everyone. So I wish companies in the field success and I hope they thrive despite regulators doing their best to destroy them, like PredictIt.
I think it's a shame Kalshi has managed to get their hooks into the CFTC and, rather than lobby to open the field to all prediction markets, instead lobbied for narrow permissions to operate only their stuff (in a limited, less useful way) while killing their competitors.
It's a terrible way to operate a business and it's a black stain on YC for funding a company using these kinds of underhanded methods.
I can only hope the regulatory environment improves and we get some improvements at the CFTC, but I think anyone familiar with US government institutions would bet against it. Perhaps someone could open a question about it on a prediction market.
Running a bucket shop is not innovation. Running a back-alley card game is not some brilliant new financialization of anything. Hustling financially illiterate or gambling-addicted suckers for their last quarters is really not about to herald a new era of anything interesting at all.
You would have to be a modern American to have so little clue about the types of frauds and scams that continue to be perpetrated to this very day that gave rise to the financial regulations we have now. There's always ways to improve regulation, but it's almost pathological how Americans refuse ever to acknowledge that there could be a huge body of law and volumes of history that might just explain the way things are. RTFM
Prediction markets are a way to cut through the fog and find truth. This isn't the equivalent of playing blackjack or roulette. In today's world, it's increasingly difficult to find people in the media who are telling the truth. Pundits everywhere can proffer predictions without being on the hook for anything if they're wrong.
Prediction markets let you more accurately know in advance pretty much anything: war, economic calamity, political outcomes like who will win an election, whether a drug will be approved, etc. and they are a genuine innovation over the current media landscape. Check out Metaculus for an example of the concept with imaginary points; it'd be more accurate if real money were allowed.
Gambling and addiction is a major problem, certainly, and I'm not arguing for zero regulation on gambling. (I could quibble on prediction markets being gambling, though they are closer to it than not.)
Regulators are so useless that they are perfectly willing to allow crypto, Las Vegas casinos and sports betting to exist and be advertised broadly (things with essentially 0 value to society), but an _actually_ useful form of dealing with probability and chance that can help people chart an uncertain world isn't allowed to exist.
Well, except in limited cases if you spend enough money greasing the right pockets and can take down a competitor too. :)
I think it's a shame Kalshi has managed to get their hooks into the CFTC and, rather than lobby to open the field to all prediction markets, instead lobbied for narrow permissions to operate only their stuff (in a limited, less useful way) while killing their competitors.
It's a terrible way to operate a business and it's a black stain on YC for funding a company using these kinds of underhanded methods.
I can only hope the regulatory environment improves and we get some improvements at the CFTC, but I think anyone familiar with US government institutions would bet against it. Perhaps someone could open a question about it on a prediction market.