You have an incredibly dim and pessimistic view of researchers and scientists. They could all easily double or triple their salaries by moving to standard industry but decide to work in Academia or Research Labs. These people on average predict AGI within ~30 years with more than 50% probability. Not sure how that prediction benefits their salary in any meaningful way.
If Astronomers were predicting a mass-extinction level asteroid impact for the year 2050 with 50% probability I doubt you would be so cavalier.
> If Astronomers were predicting a mass-extinction level asteroid impact for the year 2050 with 50% probability I doubt you would be so cavalier.
“Asteroid extinction” hasn't gone through several rounds of hype of imminence from people working in the field with a financial interest in that perception to extended “winters” as the basis of the last imminence cycle bursts in my lifetime, so... maybe the two things aren't analogous.
Well, DUH!
The people in the field who are making these promises may even believe it themselves, because their bread and butter comes from it.