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> or absurdly incompetent

This is your error.

There is no "absurdity" needed, as we didn't evolve for accurately perceiving phenomena seen while manoeuvring in transsonic flight, and we don't develop a perfect "common sense" for them either.

I'm not going to try to come up with something counterintuitive about flight, because I don't even do flight simulators.

But I can say this general category of us doing things we didn't evolve for is also why so many people — even smart people — struggle with the Monty Hall paradox, even though it's fairly simple probability.



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