Any discussion as to who is winning is meaningless without defining what victory means. And apparently it not only means something very different for each side, but also changes with time.
Suppose Ukraine manages to push Putin's army back to original pre-2014 borders. Is this victory? With a large part of the country in ruins, a terrible GDP decrease, thousands of men with PTSD, not to mention those dead. There is simply no victory here, just enormous pain because of someone's sick ambitions.
Loss/victory is far too simplistic to discuss the possible outcomes and their consequences.
Putin seems to have painted himself into a corner where now his continued rule over Russia depends on being able to paint this as either a victory or a loss that's in no way his fault (because NATO started it and he was just defending himself). But also it seems that at the very least, he needs Crimea.
For Russians in general, they don't really need anything here. The real loss for them is that Putin is willing to sacrifice their entire country to bail him out of his fiasco. A win for them would be getting rid of Putin and not replacing him with someone even worse.
For Zelensky, the bare minimum is of course independence from Russia, and he seems to have won that at least. But millions of Ukrainians have been captured and often deported/abducted by Russia, and that's a loss too. He wants those people free, and he's absolutely right to. And he wants to keep Ukraine whole; accepting any loss of Ukrainian territory is a loss to him. Not to mention that it sets a precedent; Putin has a history of making small land grabs, and without hard security guarantees, it's likely that Putin will try another land grab in the future. And indeed Putin is still trying to grab more land right now. Putin wants that corridor to Moldova, and then Moldova itself. Leaving Putin in a position where he can try this again and again, is also a loss for many countries in the future.
So even if on the short term it would be good for Ukraine if the fighting stopped; if it's really just a temporary cease fire during which Putin can regroup in order to try again, that may be worse for Ukraine than trying to completely block Putin right now.
I fully agree with you. Someone suggested the only way for Ukraine is to became another Israel, focusing on external and internal security, and developing a strong arms industry so that they can protect themselves efficiently with the help of the West.
Still, it's much easier to protect oneself against Hamas' handcrafted rockets than Russian Kinzhals...
If you asked me 10 years ago, I would have said hell no - you could fairly comfortably live in Russia, especially in big cities, and have more or less normal life, unless you are gay or oppose local or state institutions.
But now? They don't have any regard for human life. Not just the lives of Ukrainians, but their own. Putin is knowingly sacrificing tens of thousands for his sick ambition. There is nothing Russia gained from this war. Utter tragedy for everyone.
> Ukraine may win... after 5+ years of brutal war and heavy destruction. Is that better than a life back under Moscow's rule?
Considering the treatment they experienced in occupied cities - yes, it might be. Being under Moscow's rule won't be an occupation like Eastern Europe had under USSR, but a brutal regime made the extinguish the concept of "Ukrainians". Putin is clearly signaling that.
Suppose Ukraine manages to push Putin's army back to original pre-2014 borders. Is this victory? With a large part of the country in ruins, a terrible GDP decrease, thousands of men with PTSD, not to mention those dead. There is simply no victory here, just enormous pain because of someone's sick ambitions.