Peak oil doesn't mean we run out of oil, it just means that the cost rises to the point that it's no longer affordable for most uses. Production is unlikely to decline for many decades, it's just that demand for energy is growing rapidly while production is static.
At $20 or $30 a gallon, oil is completely unaffordable as a fuel but still perfectly viable as a raw material. Obviously we'll substitute out other materials for the least important use-cases, but we won't have to radically rethink the manufactured world. According to the DoE, plastic production accounted for just 4.6% of petroleum consumption and 1.5% of natural gas consumption in the US.
The costs of all raw materials are rising, many of them much faster than the price of oil. Many metals have doubled or tripled in price over the past few years. Commodity foodstuffs have surged in price. Quality hardwood is increasingly scarce. We fetishise oil, but we have a generalised resource problem due to the rapid improvements of living standards in the developing world. There are only three plausible scenarios - people getting used to consuming much less, the development of nuclear fusion, or a third world war.
> There are only three plausible scenarios - people getting used to consuming much less, the development of nuclear fusion, or a third world war.
And from three scenarios, the second is at the moment impossible because of physics and the first because of current state-of-art of economy and politics.
Note that those that claim there's "enough energy" for at least 100 years always calculate "at current consumption rates" which means "no growth" whereas economists and politicians both assume steady growth. As soon as you include the "measly" (from the politicians view) growth of only 3% per year you have to expect double consumption in only 25 years, four time that in 50 years, eight times in 75 and sixteen times in a 100.
And from three scenarios, the second is at the moment impossible because of physics
Even if it was possible, who knows if we could even get them built. I half suspect we (as a country) will pick WWIII over nuclear reactors, we're so afraid of them.
At $20 or $30 a gallon, oil is completely unaffordable as a fuel but still perfectly viable as a raw material. Obviously we'll substitute out other materials for the least important use-cases, but we won't have to radically rethink the manufactured world. According to the DoE, plastic production accounted for just 4.6% of petroleum consumption and 1.5% of natural gas consumption in the US.
The costs of all raw materials are rising, many of them much faster than the price of oil. Many metals have doubled or tripled in price over the past few years. Commodity foodstuffs have surged in price. Quality hardwood is increasingly scarce. We fetishise oil, but we have a generalised resource problem due to the rapid improvements of living standards in the developing world. There are only three plausible scenarios - people getting used to consuming much less, the development of nuclear fusion, or a third world war.