Facebook "could" go the way of Myspace, but I'm guessing that their talent is significantly better than what Myspace had. By all accounts their engineering talent is on a similar level to Google. They're almost certainly not as good a buy as the Google IPO in 2004, where the search advertising market was still in its infancy, but look at Apple. All it takes is one amazing product that helps to spawn a brand new market and they can double their market cap. I'd guess that Facebook has as good a chance at doing that as Apple, Google, or anyone else. That said, I agree that until they actually are able to pull that off their stock is overpriced. It will probably also stay overpriced for a few years no matter what happens.