In my opinion still to be seen where LLMs are going in general. They are cool sure, but I don't see its value measured in trillions in 2024 but my prediction and investment aptitudes are disastrous.
Replacing search is enough to warrant trillion dollar valuation for LLMs, question is just if they can get that good.
Note that you need to replace search on the lucrative queries, stuff like you want to buy a product or want to know about nearby open stores, those are the queries Google focuses the most on and will be the hardest to replace them on.
But since Google is adding LLMs to search, an LM competitor might not win still.
> lucrative queries
Also the hardest for an LM.
I predict this won’t end well for anyone. Google will destroy a bunch of their own value preemptively self-disrupting and burning a ton of cash only for everyone to discover that it’s not lucrative to use an AI to tell people the distance to the moon. Viagra and insurance queries will stay valuable and be least useful for a LM to disrupt. Google will maintain their market share, at the expense of more cost per query, so they’ll purge more of the loss-leaders across their consumer offering. We’ll all discover that an LLM isn’t great for search and better integrated into Gmail and similar.
they're basically already that good in my opinion, except for a few subsets of realtime+hyperlocalized information. i feel confident that is addressable
